Major League Soccer
Austin - Houston Dynamo
04/26/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.7
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Austin
Houston Dynamo
League
The Lab
- 1Austin with Brendan Hines-Ike: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 4.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Austin: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 3Houston Dynamo with Ibrahim Aliyu: 5.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Houston Dynamo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Austin: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
29%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis favors Austin for a home win with 43%, compared to 29% for Houston Dynamo
- Houston Dynamo comes into the match in improved form with two consecutive wins, while Austin remained winless in their last 5 games
- Austin is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals), while Houston concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Austin had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Houston Dynamo had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
Overview
Austin (12th place, 7 points) host Houston Dynamo (9th place, 12 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 26, 2026, 12:30 AM. Austin is looking to move out of the relegation zone, while Houston aims to solidify their mid-table position. The mathematical analysis gives the home team a 43% chance of winning.
Form
Austin's form across all competitions is DDLDL, indicating 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. Their last match was a 1-5 away defeat to SJ Earthquakes. Houston Dynamo enters the game with LLLWW form, which means 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses. Houston has won their last two matches, including a 1-0 away victory against Orlando City. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Austin has an average of 1.33 goals scored per game this season and conceded 2.11 goals on average. At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per home game. Austin kept 2 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches. Houston Dynamo averages 1.5 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Houston conceded an average of 2.5 goals. Houston kept 2 clean sheets and both teams scored in 4 matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 7 of Austin's 9 matches. For Houston, this occurred in 4 of 8 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Austin secured 2 wins, Houston Dynamo also had 2 wins, and there was 1 draw. Austin scored 4 goals in these encounters, while Houston Dynamo scored 5. The most recent clash on August 10, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw. The head-to-head record between the teams is even.
Key Players
For Austin, Facundo Torres (1 goal, 3 assists, avg rating 7.24) and Myrto Uzuni (2 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 6.82) are key attackers, whose form has recently declined slightly. Christian Ramirez (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 6.75) shows stable form. For Houston Dynamo, Guilherme (5 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 8.23) with stable form and Lawrence Ennali (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 6.67) stand out. HĂ©ctor Herrera (1 goal, 0 assists, avg rating 6.79) also shows stable form with an improved average rating in his last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Austin will start with goalkeeper Brad Stuver, who has made 9 appearances this season and kept 2 clean sheets. For Houston Dynamo, Jonathan Bond is in goal. He has played 8 matches this season and also achieved 2 clean sheets.
Influences
Austin scores an average of 1.33 goals per home game and concedes an average of 1.33 goals at home. Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game but also scores 1.5 goals away. No specific historical venue data or pitch surface influence data is available.