Major League Soccer
New England - DC United
04/11/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
9%1:2
6%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
New England
DC United
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
28%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- DC United is missing critical players; without Tai Baribo, only 52% of goal production is available
- New England's strong home offense with an average of 2.25 goals scored per home game
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 47% probability
Risk Factors
- DC United averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The mathematical analysis indicates a draw probability of 28%
- DC United historically dominated in head-to-head matches
Overview
New England (10th place, 6 points) hosts DC United (8th place, 7 points) in a Major League Soccer match on April 11, 2026, 7:30 PM
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a probability of 47%
Form
New England's form in the last five games is LLWLW
This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses
DC United's form across all competitions is LLWDL
This means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last five matches
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
New England averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded per game this season
At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 2.25 goals scored and only 0.25 goals conceded per home game
DC United averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per season
Away from home, they have averaged 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded
New England kept 1 clean sheet, while DC United kept 2 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 3 of New England's games and in 2 of DC United's games
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of New England's games and in 3 of DC United's games
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches between New England and DC United, there has been 1 home win, 2 away wins, and 1 draw
New England scored a total of 5 goals, DC United scored 6 goals
The last encounter was won by New England on August 9, 2025, with a score of 2:0
The historical record indicates a slight dominance by DC United
Key Players
For New England, Luca Langoni is an important attacker with 1 goal and 5 assists
Brayan Ceballos is stable in defense with 2 goals and an average rating of 7.39
Carles Gil supports the midfield with 1 assist and a rating of 7.3
For DC United, Matti Peltola is an important midfielder with 1 goal
Jackson Hopkins provided 1 assist in midfield
Peglow contributed 1 assist
Goalkeepers
New England's goalkeeper Matt Turner recorded 1 clean sheet in 5 appearances
DC United's goalkeeper Sean Johnson recorded 2 clean sheets in 6 appearances
Influences
New England shows a strong home record, with an average of 2.25 goals scored and only 0.25 goals conceded per home game
This indicates a clear home advantage