Major League Soccer
Seattle Sounders - Portland Timbers
07/17/2026, 02:30 AM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.1
1.0
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
10%3:1
7%3:0
7%What influences the xG?
Seattle Sounders
Portland Timbers
League
The Lab
- 1Seattle Sounders with Álex Roldán: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Portland Timbers with José Luis Caicedo Barrera: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
61%
Draw
23%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
40%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Extreme away weakness of the visitors: Portland concedes an average of 3.4 goals per away match
- Tactical dominance: Seattle recently averaged a strong 6.4 shots on target per game
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a clear home win probability of 61%
Risk Factors
- Stalling goal production for Seattle: Recently only 1.0 goals per game compared to the season average of 1.4
- Dangerous away attack: Portland is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average of 1.6
- Lack of consistency: Both teams have lost their last 2 matches in a row
Overview
Seattle Sounders (6th place, 24 points) host Portland Timbers (13th place, 14 points) at Lumen Field
Major League Soccer match on July 17, 2026, 4:30 AM
Favorites role for the home team from Seattle with a 61% calculated home win probability
Form
Seattle Sounders with form DDWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Missing momentum with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games
Portland Timbers show form LWDLL
Away team with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently
Both Seattle and Portland lost their last 2 matches in a row
Statistics
Seattle Sounders score an average of 1.33 goals in home games and concede 0.78 goals
Defensively stable with overall only 0.85 goals conceded per game this season
Portland Timbers are dangerous offensively averaging 1.57 goals, but extremely weak in defense
The visitors concede an astronomical average of 3.4 goals per away game with 0 clean sheets on the road
Head-to-Head
5 head-to-head matches in historical records
2 wins for Seattle Sounders, 1 win for Portland Timbers, and 2 draws
Goal difference of 5 to 4 goals in favor of Seattle
The last meeting on October 5, 2025, ended in a 1-0 win for Seattle
Key Players
Jesús Ferreira with 2 goals and 4 assists with an average rating of 7.28
Albert Rusnák with 3 season goals and 3 assists with a rating of 7.31
Paul Rothrock with 4 goals and 1 assist this season
Kevin Kelsy with 5 season goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.00
Cole Bassett with 2 goals and 2 assists with a strong rating of 7.38
David Da Costa with 1 goal and 3 assists in the current season
Goalkeepers
Andrew Thomas for Seattle Sounders with 5 clean sheets in 13 appearances this season
James Pantemis in goal for Portland Timbers with 1 clean sheet in 14 appearances and an average rating of 7.21
Influences
The game will be played on artificial turf at Lumen Field
Seattle Sounders with a home record of 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss (12:7 goals) on artificial turf
Portland Timbers with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses (16:14 goals) on this surface
Stadion history shows an average of 3.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches