Match report →
Seattle Sounders – Portland Timbers1 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Seattle Sounders
2.07
Total xG
3.09
Portland Timbers
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Seattle Sounders | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −1.01 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | −0.24 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Cristian Roldán not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kristoffer Velde not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Extreme away weakness of the visitors: Portland concedes an average of 3.4 goals per away match
- Tactical dominance: Seattle recently averaged a strong 6.4 shots on target per game
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a clear home win probability of 61%
Risks
- Stalling goal production for Seattle: Recently only 1.0 goals per game compared to the season average of 1.4
- Dangerous away attack: Portland is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average of 1.6
- Lack of consistency: Both teams have lost their last 2 matches in a row
All probabilities
Result
Seattle Sounders61%
Draw23%
Portland Timbers16%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Double chance
Seattle Sounders or draw84%
Portland Timbers or draw40%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
3:1
7%
3:0
7%
1:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Seattle Sounders with Álex Roldán: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Portland Timbers with José Luis Caicedo Barrera: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1 · Portland Timbers 4-1-4-1
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 35 A. Lopez
- 25 J. Ragen
- 5 N. Tolo
- 37 S. Brunell
- 31 H. Dotson
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 14 P. Rothrock
- 13 J. Morris
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 5 B. Bye
- 20 F. Surman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 17 C. Bassett
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 19 K. Kelsy Genez
Substitutes
- 17 P. Arriola
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 90 S. Gomez
- 95 O. De Rosario
- 36 Y. Tsukanome
- 45 P. Kingston
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 9 F. Mora Aliaga
- 15 E. Miller
- 16 S. Jura
- 23 I. Smith
- 25 T. Muse
- 28 A. Aravena Guzmán
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 6 A. Bonetig
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
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