Major League Soccer
SJ Earthquakes - Dallas
05/17/2026, 02:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.9
1.1
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
SJ Earthquakes
Dallas
League
The Lab
- 1Dallas: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2SJ Earthquakes: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3SJ Earthquakes with Jonathan González: 9.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
26%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Strong Home Record: SJ Earthquakes are in 2nd place with 29 points and average 2.33 goals scored at home
- Mathematical Forecast: The analysis gives SJ Earthquakes a 51% chance of winning, with 1.80 predicted home goals
- Dallas' Form: Dallas' goal production has recently stalled at 1.6 goals per game, and their form trend is negative
Risk Factors
- Fatigue: Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited data available for duel statistics
Overview
SJ Earthquakes (2nd place, 29 points) host Dallas (7th place, 19 points) in a Major League Soccer match on May 17, 2026, 3:30 AM. The home team is positioned in the upper half of the table, while Dallas is in mid-table
Form
SJ Earthquakes show a form of WWDDL (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) in their last five games. Their last match ended in a 2-3 away loss against Seattle Sounders. Dallas enters the game with a form of LLWWL (2 wins, 3 losses). Their last home game against Vancouver Whitecaps resulted in a 2-3 loss. According to Advanced Stats description, SJ Earthquakes consistently score an average of 2.3 goals per game, while Dallas' goal production recently faltered at 1.6 goals, with a season average of 2.1. SJ Earthquakes' form trend is stable, whereas Dallas' is rated as negative
Statistics
SJ Earthquakes average 2.23 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded per season. At home, these values improve to 2.33 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded per home game. They kept 5 clean sheets this season, 3 of which were at home. Both teams scored in 7 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 7 matches. Dallas has averaged 1.92 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they score 1.75 goals and concede 0.75 goals. Dallas kept 3 clean sheets this season, 2 of which were away. Both teams scored in 8 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches
Head-to-Head
In four past head-to-head matches, SJ Earthquakes secured two wins, Dallas won one game, and one match ended in a draw. SJ Earthquakes scored 10 goals, Dallas 8. The last encounter on July 17, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw. SJ Earthquakes have been dominant in recent direct confrontations
Key Players
Preston Judd (Attacker) is a key offensive player with 9 goals and 2 assists, holding a season average rating of 7.22 and stable form. Ousseni Bouda (Attacker) contributed 5 goals and 1 assist, with a season average rating of 7.01 and stable form. Beau Leroux (Midfielder) has 1 goal and 3 assists to his name and a season average rating of 7.16, though his form is declining. Jack Skahan is not nominated for SJ Earthquakes. Petar Musa (Attacker) is a crucial player for Dallas with 11 goals and 2 assists, and a season average rating of 7.47, but his form is declining. Santiago Moreno (Attacker) scored 1 goal and 1 assist with a season average rating of 6.98 and stable form. Nolan Norris (Defender) contributed 1 goal and has a season average rating of 6.95, with stable form. Ran Binyamin is not nominated for Dallas
Goalkeepers
For SJ Earthquakes, goalkeeper Daniel made 13 appearances and kept 5 clean sheets. Dallas' goalkeeper, Jonathan Sirois, has not made any appearances this season, so no clean sheet data is available for him
Influences
SJ Earthquakes benefit from a home advantage, as they score an average of 2.33 goals at home and concede only 0.5 goals. Dallas shows a solid defense away from home, conceding an average of 0.75 goals per game