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SJ Earthquakes – LA Galaxy1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
SJ Earthquakes
1.93
Total xG
3.05
LA Galaxy
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SJ Earthquakes | LA Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.72 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| N. Tsakiris not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Pec not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 84% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis favors SJ Earthquakes with a 55% probability and predicts 1.93 expected goals for the home team
- SJ Earthquakes averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches while maintaining a counter-oriented average possession of 42%
- LA Galaxy showed defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 1.56 goals per away game this season
Risks
- Both teams enter the match with a short recovery period of only 3 days since their last game
- Gabriel Pec (5 goals and 4 assists) is not starting, leaving LA Galaxy with only 84% of their usual offensive strength available
- According to recent performance data, both clubs are in a negative form trend with three losses in their last five matches
All probabilities
Result
SJ Earthquakes55%
Draw25%
LA Galaxy20%
Double chance
SJ Earthquakes or draw80%
LA Galaxy or draw45%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LA Galaxy: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- SJ Earthquakes with Jack Jasinski: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- LA Galaxy with Gabriel Pec: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- SJ Earthquakes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- LA Galaxy: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)
Lineups
SJ Earthquakes 4-2-3-1 · LA Galaxy 4-4-2
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 28 B. Kikanovic
- 5 D. Munie
- 18 R. Roberts
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 40 J. González Mendoza
- 34 B. Leroux
- 16 J. Skahan
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 11 T. Werner
- 7 O. Bouda
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 2 M. Yamane
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 15 J. Haak
- 3 J. Aude
- 26 H. Miller
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 21 R. Taylor
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 18 M. Reus
Substitutes
- 3 P. Marie
- 4 D. Romney
- 6 I. Harkes
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 31 F. Montali
- 21 N. Buck
- 79 D. Johnson
- 25 M. Floriani
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 1 N. Mićović
- 14 J. Nelson
- 22 E. Wynder
- 16 I. Parente
- 20 C. Rindov
- 76 T.Elgersma
- 60 S. Hernández
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