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Major League Soccer

SJ Earthquakes - LA Galaxy

07/26/2026, 02:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
SJ Earthquakes
1.9
Total xG
3.0
LA Galaxy
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
SELG

SJ Earthquakes

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.72
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.16
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.07
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
N. Tsakiris not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)

LA Galaxy

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.27
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.10
Gabriel Pec not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    LA Galaxy: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes with Jack Jasinski: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    LA Galaxy with Gabriel Pec: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    SJ Earthquakes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    LA Galaxy: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

25%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis favors SJ Earthquakes with a 55% probability and predicts 1.93 expected goals for the home team
  • SJ Earthquakes averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches while maintaining a counter-oriented average possession of 42%
  • LA Galaxy showed defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 1.56 goals per away game this season
Risk Factors
  • Both teams enter the match with a short recovery period of only 3 days since their last game
  • Gabriel Pec (5 goals and 4 assists) is not starting, leaving LA Galaxy with only 84% of their usual offensive strength available
  • According to recent performance data, both clubs are in a negative form trend with three losses in their last five matches
Overview

SJ Earthquakes host LA Galaxy

Major League Soccer match on July 26, 2026, 4:30 AM

The second-placed team (32 points) faces the tenth-placed team (20 points) at Stanford Stadium

Form

SJ Earthquakes show the form DLLWL after a loss against Orlando City

LA Galaxy present the form LWDLL following a defeat against St. Louis City

Statistics

SJ Earthquakes score an average of 2.13 goals and concede 1.19 per match this season

LA Galaxy average 1.35 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game

The visitors concede an average of 1.56 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches

LA Galaxy lead with 3 wins to 1 win for SJ Earthquakes and 1 draw

The last meeting on June 29, 2025 ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Preston Judd with 11 goals and Timo Werner with 4 goals and 3 assists are the main threats

Beau Leroux has recorded 2 goals and 3 assists this season

Marco Reus with 4 goals and 5 assists along with Joseph Paintsil with 3 goals and 2 assists drive the attack

Lucas Sanabria has contributed 2 goals so far

Goalkeepers

Angus Gunn is in goal for the hosts, averaging a season rating of 6.14

The home team has kept 5 clean sheets this season

J. Marcinkowski guards the net for the visitors with an average rating of 7.00

The away team has recorded 2 clean sheets so far

Influences

The clash takes place at Stanford Stadium

SJ Earthquakes average 2.0 goals per home match

LA Galaxy face difficulties away from home, conceding an average of 1.56 goals per game

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