Match report →
San Diego – Dallas1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
San Diego
1.50
Total xG
3.02
Dallas
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Diego | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| David Vazquez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Amahl Pellegrino not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Luca Bombino not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Petar Musa on the bench (13 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ran Binyamin on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Possession battle: San Diego recently averaged 55.2% possession compared to Dallas' counter-oriented style with an average of 38.6% possession
- Offensive surge: Both teams are scoring more frequently recently (San Diego averaging 2.2 goals and Dallas 2.4 goals) compared to their season averages
- High-scoring trend: Snapdragon Stadium features a high average of 4.2 goals per game, which matches their last head-to-head encounter that ended 3:3
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Both teams face a tight schedule with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Defensive vulnerability: San Diego concedes an average of 1.75 goals per game this season
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions for a precise environmental analysis
All probabilities
Result
San Diego36%
Draw27%
Dallas37%
Double chance
San Diego or draw63%
Dallas or draw64%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dallas: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Dallas: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- San Diego with Luca Bombino: 2.6 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- San Diego: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
San Diego 4-3-3 · Dallas 4-2-3-1
San Diego
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 26 M. Duah
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 8 O. Valakari
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
- 77 A. Mighten
Dallas
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 18 S. Moore
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 32 N. Norris
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 12 C. Cappis
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 9 P. Musa
Substitutes
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 15 P. Soma
- 18 D. Ferree
- 20 A. Godoy
- 27 L. Bombino
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 19 D. Vazquez
- 9 L. Morgan
- 32 I. Murphy
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 11 A. Julio Santos
- 14 H. Johansson
- 23 L. Farrington
- 28 S. Sarver
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 27 C. Swann
- 40 J. Sirois
- 10 S. Moreno
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