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Major League Soccer

San Diego - Dallas

07/26/2026, 01:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
San Diego
1.5
Total xG
3.0
Dallas
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SDDAL

San Diego

Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap)
-0.15
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
David Vazquez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Amahl Pellegrino not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Luca Bombino not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Dallas

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap)
+0.07
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.03
Petar Musa on the bench (13 goals, 2 assists)
Ran Binyamin on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 86% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dallas: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Dallas: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    San Diego with Luca Bombino: 2.6 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    San Diego: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

27%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Possession battle: San Diego recently averaged 55.2% possession compared to Dallas' counter-oriented style with an average of 38.6% possession
  • Offensive surge: Both teams are scoring more frequently recently (San Diego averaging 2.2 goals and Dallas 2.4 goals) compared to their season averages
  • High-scoring trend: Snapdragon Stadium features a high average of 4.2 goals per game, which matches their last head-to-head encounter that ended 3:3
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams face a tight schedule with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Defensive vulnerability: San Diego concedes an average of 1.75 goals per game this season
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions for a precise environmental analysis
Overview

San Diego (13th place, 17 points) host Dallas (4th place, 26 points) at the Snapdragon Stadium

Major League Soccer match on July 26, 2026, 3:30 AM

The mathematical model predicts a highly balanced match with 1.50 expected goals for the hosts and 1.51 for the visitors

Form

San Diego shows a weak form trend of DWDLL and lost their last match

Dallas is in good shape with WLWWD and recently secured a draw

Form explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

San Diego scores 1.88 goals and concedes 1.75 goals per game on average

Dallas is defensively more stable conceding 1.5 goals while scoring 2.0 goals on average

San Diego averages 1.92 goals at home while Dallas scores 2.0 goals on average away from home

Head-to-Head

In 3 direct duels San Diego won 2 times with 1 draw recorded

The goal difference is 11:5 in favor of San Diego

Their last meeting on March 15, 2026 ended in a high-scoring 3:3 draw

Key Players

Marcus Ingvartsen scored 11 goals in 16 appearances this season

Anders Dreyer stands out with 6 goals and 7 assists

For Dallas Logan Farrington scored 6 goals and assisted 2 times

Not in squad: David Vazquez, Amahl Pellegrino, Luca Bombino for San Diego, and Petar Musa, Ran Binyamin for Dallas

Goalkeepers

CJ dos Santos has 3 appearances and helped secure 3 clean sheets for San Diego

Daniel played 1 game for Dallas while the team recorded 2 away clean sheets this season

Influences

Snapdragon Stadium has a high average of 4.2 goals per game

On natural grass both teams have shown productive attacking numbers

Both sides have only 3 days of rest since their last match

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