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Major League Soccer

New England - Toronto

07/22/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
New England
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Toronto
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
NETOR

New England

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.80
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Luca Langoni on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 79% available)

Toronto

Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.69
Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-0.62
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Kobe Franklin on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Derrick Etienne Jr. on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New England: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    New England with Luca Langoni: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    New England: 83% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Toronto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 5
    New England: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

30%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Defensive discrepancy: New England concede just 0.64 goals on average at home, while Toronto allow 3.67 goals per away game
  • Turf specialists: New England achieved 8 wins on artificial turf, whereas Toronto lost both games on this surface
  • Possession advantage: New England dominated recent matches with an average of 55% possession
Risk Factors
  • Lack of penetration: New England averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Severe away weakness: Toronto concede an average of 3.67 goals per away match
  • Toothless away attack: Toronto averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

New England host Toronto at Gillette Stadium

MLS match on July 23, 2026, 1:30 AM

Fourth-place New England face eleventh-place Toronto

New England aim to strengthen their position in the playoff spots

Form

New England form: WWLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Inconsistent recent performances for the hosts with 3 wins and 2 losses

Toronto form: DLLLD

The visitors are struggling with no wins in their last 5 games, recording 3 losses and 2 draws

Statistics

New England average 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game

Toronto score an average of 1.47 goals per match but concede 1.93 goals

New England are defensively solid at home, conceding only 0.64 goals on average

Toronto concede an average of 3.67 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

Two wins for Toronto and one for New England in the last 4 head-to-head matches

The last direct encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on September 13, 2025

Balanced goal difference with 3 goals scored by each team in this period

Key Players

Carles Gil stands out with 5 goals, 3 assists, and a season rating of 7.42

Dor Turgeman contributed 2 goals and 5 assists in 14 appearances this season

DĆ”niel SallĆ³i is a key factor in Toronto's attack with 4 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Matt Turner guards the goal for New England with a season average rating of 7.22

Toronto's Luka Gavran holding a season rating of 6.59 and has scored one goal this season

Both keepers aim to bring stability to their defensive lines

Influences

New England have an outstanding record of 8 wins and 2 losses on artificial turf

Toronto lost both of their matches on this surface, with a 1-6 goal difference

The surface at Gillette Stadium could represent a significant advantage for the home side

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