Match report →
New England – Toronto0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
New England
1.47
Total xG
2.47
Toronto
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New England | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.80 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.69 | |
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.62 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Luca Langoni on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Kobe Franklin on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Derrick Etienne Jr. on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defensive discrepancy: New England concede just 0.64 goals on average at home, while Toronto allow 3.67 goals per away game
- Turf specialists: New England achieved 8 wins on artificial turf, whereas Toronto lost both games on this surface
- Possession advantage: New England dominated recent matches with an average of 55% possession
Risks
- Lack of penetration: New England averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Severe away weakness: Toronto concede an average of 3.67 goals per away match
- Toothless away attack: Toronto averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
New England46%
Draw30%
Toronto24%
Double chance
New England or draw76%
Toronto or draw54%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New England: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- New England with Luca Langoni: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- New England: 83% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Toronto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- New England: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
Lineups
New England 4-2-3-1 · Toronto 3-4-2-1
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 8 M. Polster
- 22 E. Kohler
- 2 M. Fofana
- 23 W. Sands
- 21 B. Raines
- 80 A. Yusuf
- 25 P. Miller
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 7 G. Yow
- 11 D. Turgeman
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 38 J. Gilman
- 25 W. Zimmerman
- 96 R. Chukwu
- 29 D. Kerr
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 21 J. Osorio
- 22 R. Laryea
- 99 J. Vilsaint
- 20 D. Salloi
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
Substitutes
- 4 T. Beason
- 14 J. Yueill
- 33 D. Parisian
- 41 L. Langoni
- 15 C. Baker
- 3 B. Ceballos Jiménez
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 17 M. Zambrano-Delgado
- 27 W. Harris
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 9 J. Sargent
- 78 M. Henry
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 19 K. Franklin
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 44 R. Edwards
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 77 A. De Rosario
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