Match report →
Nashville SC – CF Montréal1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Nashville SC
1.62
Total xG
3.03
CF Montréal
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nashville SC | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.59 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.37 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Cristian Espinoza not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Warren Madrigal not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Bryan Acosta on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ahmed Qasem on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Wikelman José Carmona Torres not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Strong home-away discrepancy: Nashville averages 2.18 goals at home, whereas Montréal concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game
- Squad depletion for Nashville: Only 75% of regular starting XI strength available due to the absence of key attackers Cristian Espinoza and Warren Madrigal
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis estimates Nashville SC's win probability at 41%
Risks
- Montréal's major away weakness, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game
- Limited offensive options for Nashville due to the absence of 4 potential key players
All probabilities
Result
Nashville SC41%
Draw27%
CF Montréal32%
Double chance
Nashville SC or draw68%
CF Montréal or draw59%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- CF Montréal: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Nashville SC with Reed Baker-Whiting: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Nashville SC: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Nashville SC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Nashville SC 4-2-3-1 · CF Montréal 4-3-3
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 22 J. Bauer
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 14 S. Mohammed
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 19 A. Muyl
- 9 S. Surridge
CF Montréal
- 1 S. Breza
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 2 J. Neal
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 21 F. Herbers
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 22 V. Loturi
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 9 P. Owusu
- 23 N. Streit
Substitutes
- 1 J. Willis
- 5 J. Maher
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 17 W. Pacius
- 23 J. Knight
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 37 A. Qasem
- 21 T. Williams
- 12 C. Brunet
- 6 S. Piette
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 17 D. Þórhallsson
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 29 O. Escobar
- 5 B. Craig
- 26 I. Losenko
- 41 S. Keita
- 25 F. Amaya
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