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Major League Soccer

Nashville SC - CF Montréal

07/23/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Nashville SC
1.6
Total xG
3.0
CF Montréal
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NSCM

Nashville SC

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.59
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)
+0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Cristian Espinoza not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists)
Warren Madrigal not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Bryan Acosta on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Ahmed Qasem on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

CF Montréal

Attack strength (1.24x league average)
+0.37
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)
-0.17
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Wikelman José Carmona Torres not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nashville SC: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    CF Montréal: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Nashville SC with Reed Baker-Whiting: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Nashville SC: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Nashville SC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

27%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Strong home-away discrepancy: Nashville averages 2.18 goals at home, whereas Montréal concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game
  • Squad depletion for Nashville: Only 75% of regular starting XI strength available due to the absence of key attackers Cristian Espinoza and Warren Madrigal
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis estimates Nashville SC's win probability at 41%
Risk Factors
  • Montréal's major away weakness, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game
  • Limited offensive options for Nashville due to the absence of 4 potential key players
Overview

Nashville SC host CF Montréal

Major League Soccer match on July 23, 2026, 12:30 AM

League leaders Nashville SC (36 points) face 12th-placed CF Montréal (15 points)

The home side aims to defend their top spot

Form

Nashville SC form: DWWWW

CF Montréal form: WDLDD

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Nashville SC is unbeaten in 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw

CF Montréal recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss recently

Statistics

Nashville SC scores an average of 2.13 goals and concedes 0.73 goals per game

At home, Nashville SC scores an average of 2.18 goals

CF Montréal concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game

At Nashville's venue, 4 of the last 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches

Nashville SC won 2 games, CF Montréal won 0, with 2 draws

The goal difference is 8:2 in favor of Nashville SC

The last match ended in a 1:1 draw on October 4, 2025

Key Players

Hany Mukhtar has scored 6 goals and provided 4 assists this season

Sam Surridge has scored 9 goals in 9 appearances this season

Prince Owusu is the top threat with 9 goals and 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Brian Schwake played 15 matches for Nashville SC with a season average rating of 7.04

Sébastian Breza has not made an appearance for CF Montréal this season

Nashville SC has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Strong home record for Nashville SC with 24 goals scored in 11 home matches

Matches at GEODIS Park averaged 3.8 goals per game recently

The game will be played on natural grass

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