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Major League Soccer

SJ Earthquakes - Orlando City

07/23/2026, 02:30 AM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
SJ Earthquakes
2.6
Total xG
3.5
Orlando City
1.0
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

8%

4:0

5%

4:1

5%
What influences the xG?
SEOC

SJ Earthquakes

Attack strength (1.43x league average)
+1.08
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.92
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.58
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.3 season average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.13
Jack Skahan on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Orlando City

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.12
MartĂ­n Ojeda on the bench (11 goals, 0 assists)
74% of goal output missing (only 59% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.81
+0.81
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Orlando City with Luis OtĂĄvio: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes: 35% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 20)

  • 3
    SJ Earthquakes with Dave Romney: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    SJ Earthquakes: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Orlando City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

71%

Draw

18%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

29%

No Draw

82%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Extreme defensive weakness: Orlando City concedes an average of 5.17 goals per away game
  • Strong mathematical favorite: The model calculates a 71% home win probability for SJ Earthquakes
  • Efficient home attack: SJ Earthquakes score an average of 2.29 goals per home match
Risk Factors
  • Key player missing: MartĂ­n Ojeda is not starting, leaving Orlando City with only 60% of their typical goal-scoring threat
  • Guest attack trend: Orlando City has been scoring more frequently recently, averaging 2.2 goals compared to their 1.5 season average
Overview

SJ Earthquakes host Orlando City at PayPal Park

Major League Soccer match on July 23, 2026, 4:30 AM

The second-placed team (32 points) faces the 13th-placed team (14 points)

The hosts are clear favorites for this match

Form

SJ Earthquakes form: DDLLW

Most recently they won 3-1 against Portland Timbers after four winless games

Orlando City form: WLWDL

Most recently they lost heavily 2-6 against Cincinnati

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

SJ Earthquakes average 2.27 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per season game

At home the Quakes score an average of 2.29 goals while conceding only 0.86 goals

Orlando City concedes an average of 2.93 goals per game this season

Particularly away their defense is highly vulnerable conceding an average of 5.17 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been one head-to-head match between these teams

Orlando City won that away match 1-0 on May 19, 2024

Historically Orlando City leads the matchup

Key Players

Preston Judd with 11 goals and 2 assists in 15 season matches

Timo Werner with 4 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 7.44

Daniel Munie with 3 goals and 1 assist this season

Antoine Griezmann has 2 assists in his last 5 matches with a 7.15 rating

Griffin Dorsey with 2 goals and 1 assist this season

Justin Ellis scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Angus Gunn was in goal for 4 of the last 5 matches for SJ Earthquakes

Maxime Crépeau appeared in 14 matches for Orlando City this season

SJ Earthquakes kept a clean sheet 5 times this season

Orlando City has not kept a single clean sheet this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at PayPal Park

In the 5 home matches played there an average of 3.4 goals were scored per game

Both teams scored and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of these matches

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