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SJ Earthquakes – Orlando City0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
SJ Earthquakes
2.56
Total xG
3.53
Orlando City
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SJ Earthquakes | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +1.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.92 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.81 | +0.81 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.58 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.3 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Jack Skahan on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Martín Ojeda on the bench (11 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 74% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Extreme defensive weakness: Orlando City concedes an average of 5.17 goals per away game
- Strong mathematical favorite: The model calculates a 71% home win probability for SJ Earthquakes
- Efficient home attack: SJ Earthquakes score an average of 2.29 goals per home match
Risks
- Key player missing: Martín Ojeda is not starting, leaving Orlando City with only 60% of their typical goal-scoring threat
- Guest attack trend: Orlando City has been scoring more frequently recently, averaging 2.2 goals compared to their 1.5 season average
All probabilities
Result
SJ Earthquakes71%
Draw18%
Orlando City11%
Double chance
SJ Earthquakes or draw89%
Orlando City or draw29%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:0
8%
3:1
8%
4:0
5%
4:1
5%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Orlando City with Luis Otávio: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- SJ Earthquakes: 35% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 20)
- SJ Earthquakes with Dave Romney: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- SJ Earthquakes: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Orlando City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
SJ Earthquakes 4-2-3-1 · Orlando City 4-4-2
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 28 B. Kikanovic
- 5 D. Munie
- 18 R. Roberts
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 34 B. Leroux
- 7 O. Bouda
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 11 T. Werner
- 19 P. Judd
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 24 G. Dorsey
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 6 R. Jansson
- 3 A. Marín Gómez
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 8 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 22 J. Ellis
Substitutes
- 3 P. Marie
- 4 D. Romney
- 6 I. Harkes
- 16 J. Skahan
- 40 J. González Mendoza
- 31 F. Montali
- 79 D. Johnson
- 25 M. Floriani
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 12 Javier Otero
- 14 T. Spicer
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 29 T. Reid-Brown
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 23 H. Sarajian
- 44 B. Rhein Goncalves
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