Major League Soccer
Austin - St. Louis City
05/03/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.5
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%0:2
5%What influences the xG?
Austin
St. Louis City
League
The Lab
- 1St. Louis City with Lukas MacNaughton: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2St. Louis City: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 3Austin: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 4Austin with Brendan Hines-Ike: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 4.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Austin: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
30%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Austin has a 41% win probability, higher than St. Louis City's 29%
- Austin's home strength: Austin scores an average of 1.5 goals at home and concedes only 1.0 goals
- Defensive weakness (Away): St. Louis City concedes an average of 3.33 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- St. Louis City concedes an average of 3.33 goals per away game
- The head-to-head record in the last four matches favors St. Louis City with two wins, one draw, and one loss, including a 3-1 victory in their last encounter
Overview
Austin (12th place, 10 points) hosts St. Louis City (14th place, 6 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 3, 2026, 4:30 PM. Both teams are in the lower third of the table and are fighting to catch up.
Form
Austin's last five games show a form of DLDLW, which means one win, two draws, and two losses. Austin won their last match. St. Louis City's form in the last five matches is WDDLL, with one win, two draws, and two losses. St. Louis City suffered two consecutive losses recently. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Austin averages 1.4 goals scored per game and concedes 1.9 goals per game. At home, Austin scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes only 1.0 goals. In 70% of Austin's matches, over 2.5 goals were scored, and in 70% both teams scored. Austin is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.6). St. Louis City averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.78 goals conceded per game. Away from home, St. Louis City scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes an alarming 3.33 goals. Only 33% of St. Louis City's matches ended with over 2.5 goals, while in 67% both teams scored. St. Louis City is currently scoring more frequently (1.6) than their season average (1.0).
Head-to-Head
In four head-to-head matches, St. Louis City secured two wins, Austin one win, and there was one draw. Austin scored a total of four goals, while St. Louis City scored six goals. St. Louis City won the last encounter on October 5, 2025, with a 3-1 score.
Key Players
For Austin, Facundo Torres is a key player with one goal and four assists, holding an average rating of 7.29. Myrto Uzuni scored three goals and provided one assist with an average rating of 6.92. Christian Ramirez contributed two goals. For St. Louis City, Marcel Hartel is the standout player with three goals and one assist, holding an average rating of 7.76. Simon Becher has one goal and two assists. Chris Durkin has scored one goal this season. Not selected: Daniel Ethan Edelman (0 Goals/2 Assists).
Goalkeepers
Austin's goalkeeper, Brad Stuver, has an average rating of 7.38 this season and kept three clean sheets. Roman BĂŒrki, St. Louis City's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 6.78 and has not kept a clean sheet this season.
Influences
Austin shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 1.0 goals conceded. This indicates a home advantage, which is amplified by St. Louis City's away weakness.