Major League Soccer
SJ Earthquakes - Austin
04/23/2026, 02:30 AM
Expected Goals
2.4
3.4
0.9
2:0
10%2:1
10%1:1
9%3:0
8%3:1
8%What influences the xG?
SJ Earthquakes
Austin
League
The Lab
- 1SJ Earthquakes: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2SJ Earthquakes: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- 3Austin: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 4Austin with Brendan Hines-Ike: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 4.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5SJ Earthquakes with Dave Romney: 6.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
70%
Draw
19%
Away Win
11%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
65%
Under 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
43%
Under 3.5
57%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
89%
Away or Draw
30%
No Draw
81%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: SJ Earthquakes have an excellent home defense (0.25 goals conceded) facing an away-struggling Austin (2.0 goals conceded)
- Current Form: SJ Earthquakes are on a 4-game winning streak, while Austin has been winless in their last 5 matches
- Analytical Prediction: The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 70% probability and 2.45 expected goals for SJ Earthquakes
Risk Factors
- Limited Offensive Power for Austin: Only 74% of the usual starting XI strength is available as Myrto Uzuni (2G/1A) and Christian Ramirez (2G/0A) are not in the lineup
- Austin concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview
SJ Earthquakes (2nd place, 21 points) host Austin (12th place, 7 points) in Major League Soccer on April 23, 2026, 4:30 AM. The home team aims to maintain their top league position, while Austin seeks to climb out of the lower ranks.
Form
SJ Earthquakes are in strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss from their last 5 matches (LWWWW)
They have won their last 4 consecutive games
Austin shows poor form with 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 matches (LDDLD)
Austin has not won any of their last 5 matches and drew their last game
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
SJ Earthquakes display a strong offense with an average of 2.13 goals per game and an excellent defense conceding only 0.38 goals per game
SJ Earthquakes kept 5 clean sheets
Austin scores an average of 1.38 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.75 goals per game
Austin managed to keep 2 clean sheets
At home, SJ Earthquakes average 2.0 goals scored and concede 0.25 goals
Austin scores an average of 1.4 goals away and concedes 2.0 goals per game
In 2 SJ Earthquakes matches, both teams scored, and 4 matches had over 2.5 goals
In 6 Austin matches, both teams scored, and 6 matches had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the 4 previous head-to-head matches, SJ Earthquakes secured 1 win, Austin had 2 wins, and there was 1 draw
SJ Earthquakes scored 7 goals in these encounters, while Austin scored 9 goals
The last match was won by SJ Earthquakes with a 2:1 score on October 19, 2025
Austin has been historically more dominant in recent direct encounters
Key Players
Niko Tsakiris (Midfielder) shows a rising form trend with a rating of 8.03 in the last 5 games, 2 goals, and 2 assists
Ousseni Bouda (Attacker) scored 2 goals in the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.90
Beau Leroux (Midfielder) contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games, with a rating of 7.31
Goalkeepers
SJ Earthquakes' goalkeeper, Daniel, has an average rating of 7.15 and kept 5 clean sheets
Brad Stuver, Austin's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 7.31 and achieved 2 clean sheets
Influences
SJ Earthquakes show a strong home performance with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.25 goals conceded per home game
Austin is vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away game