šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

New York City - Charlotte

04/18/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
New York City
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Charlotte
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NYCCHA

New York City

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-1.11
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.67
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.67
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.06
Keaton Parks on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Charlotte

Attack strength (1.76x league average)
+0.38
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.30
Rising form (3 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.25
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Liel Abada on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.5 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Charlotte: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 2
    New York City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

  • 3
    Charlotte: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • New York City's strong home offensive performance (Avg. 2.20 home goals) meets Charlotte's weak away defensive performance (Avg. 4.00 goals conceded).
  • New York City has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Charlotte, while Charlotte was victorious only once.
  • Charlotte shows a positive offensive form development, with an average of 3.0 goals in recent matches, compared to their season average of 2.17 goals.
Risk Factors
  • Charlotte conceded an average of 4.00 goals per away game.
  • Charlotte's goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina shows a declining form trend with a delta of -0.44.
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 39%, an away win with 33%, and a draw with 28%, indicating a close match.
Overview

New York City (5th place, 11 points) host Charlotte (6th place, 11 points) in Major League Soccer action. The match takes place on April 19, 2026, 12:30 AM and is a crucial encounter in the race for playoff spots.

Form

New York City's current form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses (W/D/L: WWLDL). Their last game ended in a 0-2 loss against Vancouver Whitecaps.

Charlotte has three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches (W/D/L: WDWWL). Charlotte suffered a 1-2 defeat against Nashville SC in their last outing.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

New York City averages 2.00 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.29 goals per game this season.

Charlotte scores an average of 1.86 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.29 goals per game.

At home, New York City is offensively strong, scoring an average of 2.20 goals and maintaining a stable defense with an average of 1.00 goals conceded.

Charlotte shows defensive weaknesses away from home, conceding an average of 4.00 goals per away game while scoring only 1.00 goal.

Both teams scored in 5 of New York City's 7 games and in 5 of Charlotte's 7 games.

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of New York City's 7 games and in 5 of Charlotte's 7 games.

Head-to-Head

In 5 previous head-to-head matches, New York City secured three victories, Charlotte won once, and one game ended in a draw.

The last encounter was on November 8, 2025, with New York City winning 3-1 away against Charlotte.

Key Players

For New York City, NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau with 5 goals and Maxi Moralez with 1 goal and 5 assists are important attacking forces this season. Agustƭn Ojeda has also contributed 2 goals and 1 assist.

For Charlotte, Pep Biel stands out with 4 goals and 2 assists, as does Wilfried Zaha with 2 goals and 2 assists. Idan Toklomati has scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist.

Goalkeepers

New York City's goalkeeper Matt Freese has played 7 season games with an average rating of 7.02 and kept one clean sheet.

Kristijan Kahlina, Charlotte's goalkeeper, also played 7 season games with an average rating of 7.41 and kept one clean sheet, but shows a declining form trend with a delta of -0.44.

Influences

New York City demonstrates a clear home advantage, scoring an average of 2.20 home goals and conceding only 1.00 goal per home game.

Charlotte, however, struggles significantly away from home, conceding an average of 4.00 goals per away game.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.