Major League Soccer
Charlotte - Cincinnati
05/09/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.4
1.4
1:1
11%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Charlotte
Cincinnati
League
The Lab
- 1Charlotte: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Charlotte with Luca de la Torre: 6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Charlotte: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 4Cincinnati with Alvas Powell: 7.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.8 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 5Cincinnati: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
50%
Draw
24%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
65%
Under 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
43%
Under 3.5
57%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
50%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis favors Charlotte with a 50% probability of winning
- Charlotte historically dominated head-to-head matches and shows a strong home defense with an average of 0.71 goals conceded
- Cincinnati is in good form, unbeaten in 5 games, and recorded 2 consecutive wins recently
Risk Factors
- Cincinnati is missing key players Ender Echenique (1G/3A) and Tom Barlow (2G/0A), accounting for 8% of their seasonal assists
- Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.6 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
- Charlotte's recent goal production has declined (1.2) compared to their season average (1.8)
Overview
Charlotte (8th place, 14 points) hosts Cincinnati (6th place, 15 points) in Major League Soccer. The match is scheduled for May 10, 2026, 12:30 AM. The mathematical analysis identifies Charlotte as a slight favorite with a 50% probability of winning.
Form
Charlotte shows a negative form trend with 'LWLLL' from their last five games, corresponding to 1 win and 4 losses. The team is currently on a streak of 3 consecutive losses. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is in good form with 'DDDWW', tallying 2 wins and 3 draws from their last five matches. Cincinnati recorded 2 consecutive wins recently.
Statistics
Charlotte averages 1.64 goals scored per game and concedes 1.73 goals. In home games, the average is 1.71 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded. For Charlotte, 8 games ended with both teams scoring, and 8 games had over 2.5 goals. Cincinnati averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.27 goals conceded per game this season. Away from home, Cincinnati averages 2.2 goals scored but concedes 3.6 goals. For Cincinnati, both teams scored in 7 games, and 6 games had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the four historical head-to-head encounters, Charlotte dominated with 3 wins, while Cincinnati has not secured a victory, with 1 match ending in a draw. Charlotte scored 7 goals and conceded 2. The last meeting on August 10, 2025, ended in a 1-0 victory for Charlotte.
Key Players
For Charlotte, Pep Biel (5 goals, 4 assists) and Idan Toklomati (3 goals, 1 assist) are important offensive players. Wilfried Zaha (2 goals, 2 assists) also contributes to goal threat. For Cincinnati, Kévin Denkey (6 goals, 1 assist) and Evander (5 goals, 1 assist) stand out. Pavel Bucha is another important player with 1 goal and 2 assists.
Goalkeepers
Kristijan Kahlina is Charlotte's goalkeeper with a season average rating of 7.18 and a declining form (6.78 in the last 5 games). He recorded 1 clean sheet. For Cincinnati, Roman Celentano is in goal, with an average rating of 7.1 and rising form (7.27 in the last 5 games). He has 2 clean sheets.
Influences
Charlotte shows strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.71 goals in home matches. Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.6 goals away from home, but also scores 2.2 goals per away game.