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Major League Soccer

Vancouver Whitecaps - Colorado Rapids

04/26/2026, 02:30 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Colorado Rapids
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
VWCR

Vancouver Whitecaps

Defensive strength (0.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-1.43
Attack strength (1.43x league average)
-0.56
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.39
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.01
AZ Jackson on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Colorado Rapids

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.62
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.46
Rising form (3.5 vs 2.6 season average)
+0.26
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.05
Darren Yapi on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vancouver Whitecaps: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 3
    Colorado Rapids: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Colorado Rapids with Keegan RosenberryĀ : 8.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Colorado Rapids: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

26%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 54% home win probability for Vancouver Whitecaps
  • Vancouver Whitecaps show strong offensive power at home (avg. 2.57 home goals) and solid defense (avg. 0.43 home goals conceded)
  • Colorado Rapids exhibit a significant defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Colorado Rapids had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • The head-to-head record between the teams is even with 2 wins each, indicating an unpredictable dynamic
Overview

Vancouver Whitecaps (2nd place, 21 points) host Colorado Rapids (7th place, 13 points)

Major League Soccer match on April 25, 2026, 7:30 PM

The Whitecaps aim to consolidate their top position and maintain the gap to their pursuers

Form

Vancouver Whitecaps show strong form with "WLWWW" in their last five matches

This means 4 wins and 1 loss for the home team

Colorado Rapids' form in their last five matches is "WLWLD"

The away team recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Vancouver Whitecaps score an average of 2.75 goals per game this season and concede 0.5 goals

In home games, they average 2.57 goals scored and only 0.43 goals conceded

The Whitecaps kept 5 clean sheets this season

Both teams scored in 2 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 matches

Colorado Rapids average 2.33 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded this season

Away from home, Colorado Rapids average 2.33 goals scored and concede an alarming 3.0 goals

The Rapids kept 2 clean sheets in season matches

In 6 Colorado Rapids matches, both teams scored, and 6 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 wins each for Vancouver Whitecaps and Colorado Rapids

There have been no draws in these encounters

Vancouver Whitecaps scored 4 goals, while Colorado Rapids scored 5 goals

The last encounter was won by Colorado Rapids on July 13, 2025, with a 3-0 score

The recent head-to-head record is even

Key Players

For Vancouver Whitecaps, Brian White stands out with 6 goals this season and 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Thomas MĆ¼ller was important with 4 season goals and 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Sebastian Berhalter contributed 3 goals and 4 assists this season

For Colorado Rapids, Rafael Navarro is a key player with 6 goals and 3 assists this season, including 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 matches

Paxten Aaronson scored 3 season goals, with 3 of them in his last 5 matches

Kosi Thompson scored 2 goals in his 3 played matches

Goalkeepers

Vancouver Whitecaps' goalkeeper Yohei Takaoka recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Colorado Rapids' goalkeeper Zack Steffen managed to keep 2 clean sheets this season

Influences

Vancouver Whitecaps show strong home advantage with an average of 2.57 goals scored and only 0.43 goals conceded per home game

Colorado Rapids are vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game

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