Major League Soccer
Inter Miami - Orlando City
05/02/2026, 11:15 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.0
1.0
1:1
11%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Inter Miami
Orlando City
League
The Lab
- 1Orlando City with Tahir Reid-Brown: 5.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Inter Miami: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Orlando City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Inter Miami: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Inter Miami: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
61%
Draw
23%
Away Win
15%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
85%
Away or Draw
39%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Inter Miami is the clear favorite with a home win probability of 61% according to mathematical analysis
- Orlando City's away defense is extremely weak, conceding an average of 10.0 goals per away game
- Inter Miami's form is stable to good with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 games, while Orlando City recorded 3 losses and only 1 win in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
- Orlando City's defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 10.0 goals per away game
- Inter Miami's recent trend of 3 draws in their last 5 matches, including 2 at home
- Several injured players on both sides, including M. Silvetti and S. ReguilĂłn RodrĂguez for Inter Miami, and M. Pasalic and J. Gerbet for Orlando City
Overview
Inter Miami (2nd place, 19 points) hosts Orlando City (14th place, 7 points) in Major League Soccer on May 2, 2026, 11:15 PM
Inter Miami aims to consolidate its top position, while Orlando City seeks to climb out of the lower table regions
Form
Inter Miami is unbeaten in their last 5 games with a form of DDWWD
This includes 2 wins and 3 draws
Their last match ended in a draw
Orlando City shows weaker form with LDLWL in their last 5 games
This means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
They lost their most recent encounter
Statistics
Inter Miami averages 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game this season
At home, Inter Miami averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded
Both teams scored in 7 of 10 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 7 matches
Orlando City averages 1.2 goals scored and 2.9 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Orlando City concedes an extreme 10.0 goals per game and scores 1.5 goals
Both teams scored in 6 of 10 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters, the head-to-head record is even
Both teams won 2 matches each, and 1 game ended in a draw
Inter Miami scored a total of 10 goals, Orlando City 9 goals
The last meeting on March 2, 2026, was won by Orlando City at home with a score of 4:2
Recent dominance is assessed as even
Key Players
For Inter Miami, Lionel Messi is a crucial attacking player with 7 goals and 1 assist in 9 season appearances, holding an average rating of 8.01
GermĂĄn Berterame contributes with 3 goals and 2 assists, showing rising form and a rating of 6.94
Rodrigo De Paul is important in midfield with 2 goals and 2 assists and a rating of 7.64
For Orlando City, MartĂn Ojeda is the top scorer with 4 goals in 10 season appearances and a rating of 7.21
IvĂĄn Angulo has provided 3 assists with a rating of 6.67
Justin Ellis recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games with a rating of 7.01
Goalkeepers
Inter Miami's goalkeeper, Dayne St. Clair, has recorded 2 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 6.7
Orlando City's goalkeeper, Maxime Crépeau, has not achieved any clean sheets this season with an average rating of 6.6
Influences
Inter Miami shows a solid offense at home, averaging 1.67 goals per game
Orlando City is extremely vulnerable defensively away from home, conceding an average of 10.0 goals per away game