Match report ā
Atlanta United ā Charlotte0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlanta United
1.55
Total xG
2.83
Charlotte
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlanta United | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | ā0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | ā0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| ElĆas BĆ”ez not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Agyemang Morrison on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Atlanta United shows rising form with 3 consecutive wins recently
- Charlotte averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, showing strong offensive threat
- Charlotte proves highly adaptable on artificial turf with 5 wins in 10 games
Risks
- Charlotte concedes an average of 2.71 goals per away match
- Atlanta United averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game recently
All probabilities
Result
Atlanta United42%
Draw28%
Charlotte30%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
Atlanta United or draw70%
Charlotte or draw58%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tristan Muyumba: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Atlanta United: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Atlanta United: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Atlanta United 4-3-3 Ā· Charlotte 4-3-3
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 27 P. DĆaz Huincales
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 47 M. Edwards
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 28 W. Reilly
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 22 F. Picault
- 10 M. AlmirĆ³n Rejala
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 35 W. Cleary
- 22 F. Kessler
- 3 T. Ream
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 8 A. Westwood
- 28 D. Diani
- 11 L. Abada
- 9 Idan Toklomati
- 10 A. Saint-Maximin
Substitutes
- 2 R. HernƔndez Pimentel
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 7 S. Alzate
- 19 S. Santos Gomes
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 30 C. Togashi
- 67 E. Dovlo
- 78 A. Jardines
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 21 T. Miller
- 4 A. Privett
- 7 A. Goodwin
- 13 B. Bronico
- 14 N. Byrne
- 25 T. Smalls
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 37 R. Aloko
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account ā