🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

CF Montréal - Toronto

07/16/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
CF Montréal
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Toronto
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
CMTOR

CF Montréal

Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.27
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Prince Owusu not in squad (9 goals, 6 assists)
Wikelman José Carmona Torres not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Iván Jaime not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 37% available)

Toronto

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.78
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Jonathan Osorio  not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Emilio Aristizábal on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.81
+0.81
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    CF Montréal: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Toronto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Toronto: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

28%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • CF Montréal averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, showing a strong offensive volume
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 50% with 1.64 expected goals for Montréal
  • Toronto's form trend is heavily declining with 4 defeats in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Prince Owusu, Wikelman José Carmona Torres, and Iván Jaime are missing, leaving only 37% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Toronto concedes an average of 3.67 goals per away match, showing severe defensive struggles on the road
  • CF Montréal has failed to win any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Toronto, conceding 13 goals
Overview

CF Montréal (12th place, 14 points) host Toronto (11th place, 14 points) at Stade Saputo

Major League Soccer match on July 16, 2026, 11:30 PM

A direct duel between two teams tied on points near the bottom of the table

Form

Montréal with form LWDLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 games)

Most recently, they recorded a spectacular 4-4 draw against DC United

Toronto arrives with a form of LDLLL and three consecutive defeats

Statistics

Montréal scores an average of 1.57 goals and concedes 2.21 per match

Toronto also averages 1.57 goals scored but concedes 2.07 goals

The visitors show a high rate of both teams scoring with 12 out of 14 matches

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Toronto has 3 wins and there was 1 draw

CF Montréal has not won any game with a goal ratio of 3-13

The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on August 30, 2025

Key Players

Matty Longstaff convinces in midfield with 2 goals, 3 assists, and a rating of 7.02

Daniel Ríos recently contributed 2 goals in his last 5 games

For Toronto, Josh Sargent has been clinical with 2 goals in his recent matches

Goalkeepers

Thomas Guilier is in goal for Montréal with an average home rating of 6.71

Luka Gavran guards Toronto's goal, having made 14 appearances so far this season

Montréal has recorded 3 clean sheets, whereas Toronto has only achieved 1

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Stade Saputo

Historically, Stade Saputo sees an average of 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the past matches played at this venue

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.