Match report →
CF Montréal – Toronto0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
CF Montréal
1.64
Total xG
2.67
Toronto
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | CF Montréal | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.81 | +0.81 |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.78 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Prince Owusu not in squad (9 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Wikelman José Carmona Torres not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Iván Jaime not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 60% of goal output missing (only 37% available) | ||
| Jonathan Osorio not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Emilio Aristizábal on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- CF Montréal averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, showing a strong offensive volume
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 50% with 1.64 expected goals for Montréal
- Toronto's form trend is heavily declining with 4 defeats in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Prince Owusu, Wikelman José Carmona Torres, and Iván Jaime are missing, leaving only 37% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Toronto concedes an average of 3.67 goals per away match, showing severe defensive struggles on the road
- CF Montréal has failed to win any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Toronto, conceding 13 goals
All probabilities
Result
CF Montréal50%
Draw28%
Toronto22%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
CF Montréal or draw78%
Toronto or draw50%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- CF Montréal: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Toronto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Toronto: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
CF Montréal 4-3-3 · Toronto 3-4-2-1
CF Montréal
- 31 T. Guilier
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 2 J. Neal
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 22 V. Loturi
- 6 S. Piette
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 23 N. Streit
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 25 W. Zimmerman
- 38 J. Gilman
- 19 K. Franklin
- 22 R. Laryea
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 20 D. Salloi
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 9 J. Sargent
Substitutes
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 1 S. Breza
- 17 D. Þórhallsson
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 29 O. Escobar
- 5 B. Craig
- 35 O. Graham-Roache
- 21 F. Herbers
- 25 F. Amaya
- 78 M. Henry
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 44 R. Edwards
- 99 J. Vilsaint
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 29 D. Kerr
- 96 R. Chukwu
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