đŸ‡ș🇾

Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew - Atlanta United

05/24/2026, 09:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Columbus Crew
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Atlanta United
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CCAU

Columbus Crew

Attack weakness (0.56x league average)
-1.07
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.54
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Hugo Picard on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Atlanta United

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.61
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.38
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.13

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlanta United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Atlanta United with Luke Brennan: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Columbus Crew: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Columbus Crew with Mohamed Farsi: 4.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline forecast: Columbus Crew is expected to win with 41%, with 1.38 predicted goals
  • Home strength vs. away weakness: Columbus Crew scores 1.4 goals per home game, while Atlanta United concedes 2.33 goals away
  • Historical dominance: Columbus Crew won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Atlanta United
Risk Factors
  • Columbus Crew averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Atlanta United concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
Overview

Columbus Crew (13th place, 13 points) hosts Atlanta United (14th place, 11 points) in Major League Soccer on May 24, 2026, 10:00 PM

Both teams are in the lower half of the table, looking to improve their standing

Form

Columbus Crew's form is WLLLD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Recently, Columbus Crew drew 1-1 against Philadelphia Union away, lost 2-3 against New York RB away, lost 0-3 against New York City away, lost 2-3 against Minnesota United at home, and won 2-0 against Philadelphia Union at home

Atlanta United's form is LWWLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Recently, Atlanta United drew 1-1 against Orlando City away, lost 1-2 against LA Galaxy at home, won 3-1 against CF Montréal at home, won 2-1 against Toronto away, and lost 1-2 against New England at home

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Columbus Crew averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded per game this season

At home, Columbus Crew averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 10 Columbus Crew games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 9 games

Atlanta United averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded per game this season

Away, Atlanta United averages 1.0 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 8 Atlanta United games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 7 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches between Columbus Crew and Atlanta United, Columbus Crew has 4 wins and Atlanta United has 1 win, with no draws

Columbus Crew scored 13 goals, Atlanta United scored 8 goals

The last encounter on April 04, 2026, ended in a 3-1 victory for Columbus Crew

Key Players

For Columbus Crew, Max Arfsten with 4 goals and 4 assists, Diego Rossi with 5 goals and 1 assist, and Taha Habroune with 1 goal and 2 assists are key players

Not nominated: Hugo Picard (2G/2A)

For Atlanta United, Aleksey Miranchuk with 5 goals and 2 assists, Saba Lobjanidze with 2 goals, and Ajani Fortune with 2 goals are top performers

Tristan Muyumba scored 1 goal

Goalkeepers

Columbus Crew goalkeeper Patrick Schulte has an average rating of 6.6 in 14 appearances and has kept two clean sheets at home

Atlanta United goalkeeper Lucas Hoyos has an average rating of 6.66 in 13 appearances and has kept zero clean sheets away

Influences

Columbus Crew shows a home offensive average of 1.4 goals and a defensive average of 1.2 goals conceded per game

Atlanta United has an away offensive average of 1.0 goals and a defensive average of 2.33 goals conceded per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.