Match report →
Columbus Crew – Atlanta United2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Columbus Crew
1.38
Total xG
2.50
Atlanta United
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Columbus Crew | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −1.07 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.61 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.54 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.38 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Hugo Picard on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Pipeline forecast: Columbus Crew is expected to win with 41%, with 1.38 predicted goals
- Home strength vs. away weakness: Columbus Crew scores 1.4 goals per home game, while Atlanta United concedes 2.33 goals away
- Historical dominance: Columbus Crew won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Atlanta United
Risks
- Columbus Crew averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Atlanta United concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Columbus Crew41%
Draw30%
Atlanta United29%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Columbus Crew or draw71%
Atlanta United or draw59%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlanta United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Atlanta United with Luke Brennan: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Columbus Crew: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Columbus Crew with Mohamed Farsi: 4.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Columbus Crew 4-4-2 · Atlanta United 4-1-4-1
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 31 S. Moreira
- 4 R. Camacho
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 23 M. Farsi
- 17 S. Tidiany Bangoura
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 27 M. Arfsten
- 16 T. Habroune
- 8 D. Gazdag
- 10 D. Rossi Marachlian
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 6 J. Berrocal González
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 11 S. Lobzhanidze
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 35 A. Fortune
- 20 L. Brennan
- 59 A. Miranchuk
Substitutes
- 90 N. Axundzadə
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
- 7 D. Chambost
- 14 A. Sejdic
- 21 Y. Cheberko
- 30 H. Picard
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 45 O. Presthus
- 2 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 5 S. Rode Gregersen
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
- 18 P. Santos Amador
- 19 S. Santos Gomes
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 47 M. Edwards
- 30 C. Togashi
- 28 W. Reilly
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