Major League Soccer
Chicago Fire - Toronto
05/24/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.0
1.0
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
10%3:1
7%3:0
7%What influences the xG?
Chicago Fire
Toronto
League
The Lab
- 1Toronto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- 2Chicago Fire: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 3Chicago Fire with P. Dithejane: 7.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Toronto: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Chicago Fire: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
60%
Draw
23%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
40%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Clear Favorite Role: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Chicago Fire with approximately 60% probability and 2.03 expected goals
- Form Disparity: Chicago Fire's form of 3 wins and 2 losses is better than Toronto's 0 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games
- Home Strength Meets Away Weakness: Chicago Fire's offensive home strength (2.0 goals per game) sharply contrasts with Toronto's high away goals conceded rate (4.5 goals per game)
Risk Factors
- Toronto's away defense is highly vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per away game
- Toronto averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 matches, indicating limited offensive threat
Overview
Chicago Fire (4th place, 23 points) host Toronto (10th place, 14 points) in a Major League Soccer match on May 24, 2026, 1:30 AM
Chicago Fire aim to consolidate their top half position
Toronto are fighting to climb out of the bottom half of the table
Form
Chicago Fire's form (WLLWW) indicates 3 wins and 2 losses
Their last two matches ended in a win
Toronto's form is DLDLL, showing 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
Their last two matches ended in a loss
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Chicago Fire averages 1.92 goals scored per game and concedes 1.15 goals
They kept 6 clean sheets
Overall, 9 games had over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 games
Toronto averages 1.62 goals scored and concedes 2.08 goals per game
They kept only 1 clean sheet
9 games had over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 games
At home, Chicago Fire averages 2.0 goals scored and concedes 1.14 goals per game
Toronto concedes an average of 4.5 goals per away game
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Chicago Fire has 2 wins, Toronto has none
2 matches ended in a draw
Chicago Fire scored 9 goals, Toronto scored 5 goals
The last encounter on October 5, 2025, ended in a 2:2 draw
Chicago Fire has been more dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
For Chicago Fire, Hugo Cuypers with 13 goals, Philip Zinckernagel with 5 goals and 6 assists, and Maren Haile-Selassie with 3 goals and 1 assist are key offensive players
Hugo Cuypers has a season average rating of 7.86, Philip Zinckernagel 7.50, and Maren Haile-Selassie 7.01
Philip Zinckernagel and Maren Haile-Selassie show a rising form trend
For Toronto, DĆ”niel SallĆ³i with 4 goals and 3 assists, Kobe Franklin with 2 goals and 2 assists, and Josh Sargent with 2 goals and 1 assist stand out
Their season average ratings are 6.93 for DĆ”niel SallĆ³i, 6.57 for Kobe Franklin, and 6.89 for Josh Sargent
Goalkeepers
Chicago Fire's goalkeeper, Chris Brady, made 13 season appearances with an average rating of 7.05
The team kept 6 clean sheets
Toronto's goalkeeper Luka Gavran played in 13 games and has an average rating of 6.52
Toronto kept 1 clean sheet
Influences
Chicago Fire shows strong home performance with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded in home games
Toronto's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per away game