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Chicago Fire – Toronto2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Chicago Fire
2.03
Total xG
3.03
Toronto
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chicago Fire | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.69 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 4, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 10, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Emilio Aristizábal on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Clear Favorite Role: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Chicago Fire with approximately 60% probability and 2.03 expected goals
- Form Disparity: Chicago Fire's form of 3 wins and 2 losses is better than Toronto's 0 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games
- Home Strength Meets Away Weakness: Chicago Fire's offensive home strength (2.0 goals per game) sharply contrasts with Toronto's high away goals conceded rate (4.5 goals per game)
Risks
- Toronto's away defense is highly vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per away game
- Toronto averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 matches, indicating limited offensive threat
All probabilities
Result
Chicago Fire60%
Draw23%
Toronto17%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Double chance
Chicago Fire or draw83%
Toronto or draw40%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
3:1
7%
3:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toronto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- Chicago Fire: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Chicago Fire with P. Dithejane: 7.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Toronto: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Chicago Fire: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Chicago Fire 4-4-2 · Toronto 4-4-2
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 3 J. Elliott
- 4 M. Mbokazi
- 15 A. Gutman
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 6 A. Salétros
- 22 M. Pineda
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
- 17 R. Lod
- 9 H. Cuypers
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 38 J. Gilman
- 25 W. Zimmerman
- 15 N. Gomis
- 19 K. Franklin
- 78 M. Henry
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 21 J. Osorio
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 20 D. Salloi
- 9 J. Sargent
Substitutes
- 16 J. Waterman
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 14 V. Radojević
- 20 J. Shokalook
- 27 D. Borso
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 44 J. Cohen
- 8 C. Mueller
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 44 R. Edwards
- 99 J. Vilsaint
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 98 S. Kapor
- 77 A. De Rosario
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