Major League Soccer
Cincinnati - Inter Miami
05/13/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.1
1.4
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Cincinnati
Inter Miami
League
The Lab
- 1Cincinnati: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 20)
- 2Cincinnati: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- 3Inter Miami: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Cincinnati with Teenage Hadebe: 9.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- 5Inter Miami with Rodrigo De Paul: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
26%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- Predicted Advantage: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Cincinnati with a 42% probability and 1.69 predicted goals
- Offensive Strength: Both teams are showing positive offensive form, with Cincinnati recently averaging 2.8 goals per game and Inter Miami 2.6 goals
- High-Scoring Match: The model predicts over 2.5 goals with a 61% probability and a 64% chance of both teams scoring
Overview
Cincinnati (6th place, 16 points) hosts Inter Miami (3rd place, 22 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 13, 2026, 11:30 PM UTC. Inter Miami is higher in the table than Cincinnati and aims for further improvement in their standing.
Form
Cincinnati shows good form with a DDWWD record from the last five games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The team recorded 2 wins and 3 draws in their last five matches
The last match ended in a draw, as did the one before that
Inter Miami has a form of WWDLW, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Inter Miami won their last match and lost the one before that
Statistics
Cincinnati averages 2.00 goals scored per game this season and concedes 2.25 goals
At home, these values improve to an average of 2.20 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded
The team kept 2 clean sheets and both teams scored in 8 matches
Inter Miami has a season average of 2.17 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded
Away from home, Inter Miami is strong with an average of 2.25 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded
Inter Miami recorded 2 clean sheets and both teams scored in 9 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, the record between Cincinnati and Inter Miami is even
Both teams have secured 2 wins each, with 1 match ending in a draw
Cincinnati scored 9 goals, while Inter Miami scored 7 goals
Inter Miami won the last encounter on November 23, 2025, with a score of 0:4
Key Players
For Cincinnati, KĆ©vin Denkey is a key player, contributing 7 goals and 1 assist this season, scoring 5 goals in the last 5 games
Evander in midfield has 6 season goals and 1 assist, with 6 goals in the last 5 games
Pavel Bucha has 1 season goal and 3 assists, with 3 assists in the last 5 games
For Inter Miami, Lionel Messi is crucial with 9 goals and 4 assists this season, including 4 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games
Rodrigo De Paul contributed 3 goals and 3 assists to the season's performance, with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games
Telasco Segovia has 2 season goals and 5 assists, with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Roman Celentano is Cincinnati's goalkeeper, achieving an average rating of 7.01 in 10 season appearances
Cincinnati kept 2 clean sheets
Dayne St. Clair is Inter Miami's goalkeeper, with an average rating of 6.73 in 11 season appearances
Inter Miami kept 2 clean sheets
Influences
Cincinnati shows a solid offense at home with an average of 2.20 goals scored per home game
The home defense of Cincinnati concedes an average of 1.40 goals per home game
Inter Miami is offensively strong away from home with 2.25 goals scored per away game
The away defense of Inter Miami concedes an average of 1.50 goals per away game