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Major League Soccer

Inter Miami - Philadelphia Union

05/24/2026, 11:00 PM

6 : 4
Expected Goals
Inter Miami
1.9
Total xG
3.1
Philadelphia Union
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
IMPU

Inter Miami

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
-0.36
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.14
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap)
+0.12
Full strength squad available

Philadelphia Union

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.63
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap)
-0.18
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter Miami: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Inter Miami with Yannick Bright: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Inter Miami: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Philadelphia Union: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Inter Miami: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

25%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Inter Miami's current form with 3 consecutive wins contrasts with Philadelphia Union's 5-game winless streak
  • Inter Miami's offensive style (avg. 8.4 shots on target per game) surpasses Philadelphia Union's (avg. 4.0 shots on target per game)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 51% and highlights Inter Miami's historical dominance with 3 wins from 4 head-to-head matches
Overview

Inter Miami (2nd place, 28 points) hosts Philadelphia Union (15th place, 7 points) in Major League Soccer

Match on May 25, 2026, 12:00 AM

Inter Miami aims to consolidate their strong league position

Philadelphia Union is fighting to connect with the mid-table

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Inter Miami shows a form of DLWWW

They recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Inter Miami won their last 3 consecutive matches

Philadelphia Union has a form of LDLLD

They failed to secure a win in their last 5 games, with 2 draws and 3 losses

Their last match ended in a draw

Statistics

Inter Miami averages 2.36 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded per game this season

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 10 matches

At home, Inter Miami averages 2.5 goals scored and 2.25 goals conceded per game

Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.71 goals conceded per game this season

Away from home, Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.64 goals conceded per game

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 8 of Philadelphia Union's matches

Head-to-Head

There have been a total of 4 head-to-head matches between both teams

Inter Miami won 3 of these encounters, while 1 match ended in a draw

Philadelphia Union has not won any of the previous direct duels

Inter Miami scored 10 goals in these matches, Philadelphia Union 6 goals

The last encounter on May 24, 2025, ended in a 3-3 draw

Inter Miami was dominant at home in recent direct duels

Key Players

Inter Miami relies on Lionel Messi, who contributed 12 goals and 6 assists this season, and scored 6 goals and 5 assists in the last 5 games

Rodrigo De Paul showed 3 goals and 4 assists this season, as well as 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 matches

Telasco Segovia contributed 2 goals and 6 assists to the season, with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games

For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski stands out with 4 goals and 1 assist this season and 2 goals in the last 5 games

Cavan Sullivan scored 1 goal and 1 assist this season and 1 goal in the last 5 games

Ben Bender showed 1 goal and 1 assist this season and also 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 3 played matches

Goalkeepers

Inter Miami's goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair kept 3 clean sheets in 13 season games

Philadelphia Union's goalkeeper Andre Blake kept 2 clean sheets in 13 season games

Influences

Inter Miami averages 2.5 home goals scored per game

They concede an average of 2.25 goals per home game

Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 away goal scored per game

They concede an average of 1.64 goals per away game

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