Match report →
Inter Miami – Philadelphia Union6 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Inter Miami
1.88
Total xG
3.11
Philadelphia Union
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter Miami | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.63 | |
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | −0.36 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Inter Miami's current form with 3 consecutive wins contrasts with Philadelphia Union's 5-game winless streak
- Inter Miami's offensive style (avg. 8.4 shots on target per game) surpasses Philadelphia Union's (avg. 4.0 shots on target per game)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 51% and highlights Inter Miami's historical dominance with 3 wins from 4 head-to-head matches
Risks
All probabilities
Result
Inter Miami51%
Draw25%
Philadelphia Union24%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Inter Miami or draw76%
Philadelphia Union or draw49%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
6:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Inter Miami with Yannick Bright: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Inter Miami: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Philadelphia Union: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Inter Miami: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Inter Miami 4-3-3 · Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 17 I. Fray
- 2 G. Luján Melli
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 3 S. Reguilón Rodríguez
- 7 R. de Paul
- 42 Y. Bright
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 10 L. Messi
- 19 G. Berterame
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 2 G. Martínez Turner
- 26 N. Harriel
- 16 B. Bender
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 4 J. Lukić
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 28 A. Anello
- 10 M. Iloski
- 9 B. Damiani
Substitutes
- 4 F. Mura
- 22 D. Ayala
- 24 M. Silvetti
- 32 N. Allen
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 37 M. Falcón Picart
- 41 D. Ruiz
- 56 D. Pintér
- 59 P. Plambeck
- 8 J. Bueno Añez
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 14 J. Rafanello
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 66 F. Sundstrom
- 76 A. Rick
- 20 P. Ossibadjouo
- 47 K. LeBlanc
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