Major League Soccer
Inter Miami - Philadelphia Union
05/24/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.1
1.2
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union
League
The Lab
- 1Inter Miami: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Inter Miami with Yannick Bright: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Inter Miami: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Philadelphia Union: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Inter Miami: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
25%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Inter Miami's current form with 3 consecutive wins contrasts with Philadelphia Union's 5-game winless streak
- Inter Miami's offensive style (avg. 8.4 shots on target per game) surpasses Philadelphia Union's (avg. 4.0 shots on target per game)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 51% and highlights Inter Miami's historical dominance with 3 wins from 4 head-to-head matches
Overview
Inter Miami (2nd place, 28 points) hosts Philadelphia Union (15th place, 7 points) in Major League Soccer
Match on May 25, 2026, 12:00 AM
Inter Miami aims to consolidate their strong league position
Philadelphia Union is fighting to connect with the mid-table
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Inter Miami shows a form of DLWWW
They recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games
Inter Miami won their last 3 consecutive matches
Philadelphia Union has a form of LDLLD
They failed to secure a win in their last 5 games, with 2 draws and 3 losses
Their last match ended in a draw
Statistics
Inter Miami averages 2.36 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded per game this season
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 10 matches
At home, Inter Miami averages 2.5 goals scored and 2.25 goals conceded per game
Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.71 goals conceded per game this season
Away from home, Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.64 goals conceded per game
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 8 of Philadelphia Union's matches
Head-to-Head
There have been a total of 4 head-to-head matches between both teams
Inter Miami won 3 of these encounters, while 1 match ended in a draw
Philadelphia Union has not won any of the previous direct duels
Inter Miami scored 10 goals in these matches, Philadelphia Union 6 goals
The last encounter on May 24, 2025, ended in a 3-3 draw
Inter Miami was dominant at home in recent direct duels
Key Players
Inter Miami relies on Lionel Messi, who contributed 12 goals and 6 assists this season, and scored 6 goals and 5 assists in the last 5 games
Rodrigo De Paul showed 3 goals and 4 assists this season, as well as 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 matches
Telasco Segovia contributed 2 goals and 6 assists to the season, with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games
For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski stands out with 4 goals and 1 assist this season and 2 goals in the last 5 games
Cavan Sullivan scored 1 goal and 1 assist this season and 1 goal in the last 5 games
Ben Bender showed 1 goal and 1 assist this season and also 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 3 played matches
Goalkeepers
Inter Miami's goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair kept 3 clean sheets in 13 season games
Philadelphia Union's goalkeeper Andre Blake kept 2 clean sheets in 13 season games
Influences
Inter Miami averages 2.5 home goals scored per game
They concede an average of 2.25 goals per home game
Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 away goal scored per game
They concede an average of 1.64 goals per away game