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Major League Soccer

Nashville SC - Los Angeles FC

05/18/2026, 12:00 AM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Nashville SC
1.8
Total xG
2.9
Los Angeles FC
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
NSLAF

Nashville SC

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-1.11
Attack strength (1.24x league average)
-0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.12
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
Andy NƔjar on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

Los Angeles FC

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.27
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.20
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.08
Mark Delgado on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Nathan Ordaz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.76
+0.76
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Los Angeles FC with Nathan Ordaz: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Nashville SC: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Nashville SC with Jeison Palacios: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Nashville SC: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Los Angeles FC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

26%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a 50% probability of a home win for Nashville SC
  • Home Strength: Nashville SC exhibits strong home performance, averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded per game
  • Form Disparity: Nashville SC is in good form with 3 wins and 2 draws, while Los Angeles FC has suffered 2 consecutive losses
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available for venue statistics
  • Limited data available for weather conditions
Overview

Nashville SC (1st place, 27 points) host Los Angeles FC (6th place, 21 points)

Major League Soccer match on May 18, 2026, 1:00 AM

Nashville SC is at the top of the league, and Los Angeles FC is fighting for a playoff spot

The home team aims to solidify its league lead

Form

Nashville SC shows strong form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games

The form string across all competitions is WWDDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Their last result was a win for Nashville SC

Los Angeles FC achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

The form string across all competitions is DWDLL

Their last result for Los Angeles FC was a loss

Nashville SC has a streak of 1 win in a row

Los Angeles FC has a streak of 2 losses in a row

Statistics

Nashville SC scored an average of 2.17 goals and conceded 0.67 goals per game this season

In home games, they scored 2.25 goals and conceded 0.75 goals per game

Los Angeles FC scored an average of 1.62 goals and conceded 1.08 goals per game

In away games, they scored 1.75 goals and conceded 1.5 goals per game

Nashville SC kept 6 clean sheets, while Los Angeles FC kept 8 clean sheets

For Nashville SC, more than 2.5 goals were scored in 7 games

For Los Angeles FC, more than 2.5 goals were also scored in 7 games

Both teams scored in 5 games for Nashville SC and in 5 games for Los Angeles FC

Nashville SC failed to score in 3 games, and Los Angeles FC in 2 games

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between Nashville SC and Los Angeles FC to date

Los Angeles FC won this single encounter with a score of 5:0

The match took place on March 24, 2024

Nashville SC scored 0 goals and Los Angeles FC scored 5 goals in this only duel

Los Angeles FC dominated the last encounter

Key Players

For Nashville SC, key players in the starting lineup include:

Warren Madrigal (Attacker) with 5 season goals and 2 assists, including 3 goals in the last 5 games

Cristian Espinoza (Attacker) with 3 season goals and 5 assists, including 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 games

Hany Mukhtar (Midfielder) with 3 season goals and 4 assists, including 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 games

For Los Angeles FC, key players in the starting lineup include:

Denis Bouanga (Attacker) with 5 season goals and 1 assist, including 1 goal in the last 5 games

David MartĆ­nez (Attacker) with 4 season goals, including 2 goals in the last 5 games

Heung-min Son (Attacker) with 7 season assists, including 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Nashville SC's goalkeeper Brian Schwake played in 12 season appearances and achieved an average rating of 6.87

Nashville SC recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Los Angeles FC's goalkeeper Thomas Hasal played in 1 season appearance with an average rating of 6.65

Los Angeles FC recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Nashville SC shows strong home performance with an average of 2.25 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

Los Angeles FC concedes an average of 1.5 goals per away game

No data is available for historical matches at the venue

No data is available for performance on similar surfaces

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