Major League Soccer
Seattle Sounders - San Diego
05/10/2026, 02:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.7
1.0
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
10%1:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Seattle Sounders
San Diego
League
The Lab
- 1Seattle Sounders: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- 2Seattle Sounders with Hassani Dotson: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3San Diego: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4San Diego with Amahl Pellegrino: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 5Seattle Sounders: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
27%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Favorites Role: Mathematical analysis favors Seattle Sounders with a 52% home win probability
- Defensive Imbalance: Seattle Sounders' strong home defensive performance (0.33 goals conceded/home game) meets San Diego's vulnerable away defense (3.67 goals conceded/away game)
- Form Trend: Seattle Sounders are unbeaten in 5 games ("DWWWD"), while San Diego recorded 4 losses and 1 draw ("LLLLD") in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
- Weak Away Defense: San Diego concedes an average of 3.67 goals per away game
- Declining Goal Production: San Diego's goal production is currently slowing down with an average of 1.2 goals in recent games, while the season average is 1.7 goals
- Extensive Injury List: San Diego has Lewis Morgan (Unknown Injury), J. Tverskov (Unknown Injury), C. Dos Santos (Head Injury), and other key players on the injury list
Overview
Seattle Sounders (4th place, 20 points) host San Diego (12th place, 12 points) in Major League Soccer on May 10, 2026, 2:30 AM. Seattle is in the upper part of the table, while San Diego is in the middle. The Sounders aim to consolidate their position and reduce the gap to the top teams.
Form
Seattle Sounders are in good form with a DWWWD record from their last five matches. They secured 3 wins and 2 draws. Their recent results include a 1-1 away draw against Sporting KC and a 2-1 home win against Dallas. San Diego, on the other hand, has gone through a difficult spell with LLLLD in their last five games, consisting of 4 losses and 1 draw. Their last match was a 2-2 home draw against Los Angeles FC, preceded by a 1-2 loss against Portland Timbers.
Statistics
Seattle Sounders averaged 1.44 goals scored per game and conceded 0.56 goals this season. They kept 5 clean sheets. In home games, they average 1.33 goals scored and concede only 0.33 goals. San Diego's goal production is currently slowing down (1.2), with their season average at 1.7 goals. Seattle Sounders are currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.6). San Diego averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per game this season. Away from home, they average 2.00 goals scored but concede 3.67 goals and kept 1 clean sheet.
Head-to-Head
In the 2 head-to-head matches played so far, both teams secured one win each. Seattle Sounders scored 1 goal in total, while San Diego netted 3 goals. The last encounter on May 29, 2025, saw Seattle Sounders win 1-0 at home. The historical record is even.
Key Players
For Seattle Sounders, JesĂșs Ferreira (1 goal, 4 assists), Paul Rothrock (4 goals, 1 assist) and Cristian RoldĂĄn (3 goals, 0 assists) are key offensive players. JesĂșs Ferreira recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.31, while Paul Rothrock had 2 goals and 0 assists with a rating of 7.05, showing a declining trend. Cristian RoldĂĄn scored 2 goals in his last 4 games with a rating of 7.29. For San Diego, Anders Dreyer (5 goals, 5 assists), Marcus Ingvartsen (7 goals, 2 assists) and Onni Valakari (3 goals, 1 assist) stand out. Anders Dreyer contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.54. Marcus Ingvartsen showed 3 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.10. Onni Valakari recorded no goals or assists in the last 5 games and a rating of 6.76, indicating a declining trend.
Goalkeepers
Andrew Thomas is the Seattle Sounders' goalkeeper with 9 seasonal appearances and an average rating of 7.39. His team recorded 5 clean sheets this season, with 1 in a home game. For San Diego, Duran Ferree is in goal with 10 seasonal appearances and an average rating of 6.86. His team achieved 3 clean sheets, with 1 in an away game.
Influences
Seattle Sounders show a solid performance at home, averaging 1.33 goals scored and conceding only 0.33 goals per home game. For San Diego, away games pose a challenge, as they concede an average of 3.67 goals per away game.