šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers - Sporting KC

05/10/2026, 02:30 AM

6 : 0
Expected Goals
Portland Timbers
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Sporting KC
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
PTSK

Portland Timbers

Attack weakness (0.43x league average)
-0.82
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03

Sporting KC

Defensive weakness (2.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+1.31
Attack weakness (0.32x league average)
-0.69
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.33
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.06
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.8 season average)
-0.06
Weak away record (0.4 vs 0.8 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting KC: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Portland Timbers with Felipe Mora: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Sporting KC: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

29%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Portland Timbers are favorites with a win probability of approximately 49% according to mathematical analysis
  • Sporting KC concedes an average of 3.75 goals per away game, which represents a major defensive weakness
  • Portland Timbers show better form and have a dominant head-to-head record with 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 encounters
Risk Factors
  • Sporting KC averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Sporting KC's goal production is stagnant (0.6 goals per game in recent matches), below their season average of 0.8 goals
Overview

Portland Timbers (13th place, 10 points) host Sporting KC (15th place, 5 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 4:30 AM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table.

Form

Portland Timbers' form in their last 5 games is LWLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This translates to 2 wins and 3 losses. Their last result was a loss.

Sporting KC's form in their last 5 games is LLLLD. This represents 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses. Their last game ended in a draw.

Statistics

Portland Timbers average 1.3 goals scored and 2.1 goals conceded per game this season. At home, their average is 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded. They have kept 0 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches.

Sporting KC averages 0.8 goals scored and 2.6 goals conceded per game. Away from home, their record is weaker with 0.75 goals scored and 3.75 goals conceded per game. Sporting KC also has 0 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 6 matches.

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Portland Timbers recorded 3 wins and 1 draw. Sporting KC has not won any of these encounters. Portland Timbers scored 10 goals, while Sporting KC scored 6 goals. Portland Timbers won the last direct encounter 1-0 on May 11, 2025.

Key Players

For Portland Timbers, Kristoffer Velde is an important attacker with 3 season goals, and his form is stable with 1 goal in the last 5 games. Kevin Kelsy contributed 2 season goals and 1 assist, showing stable form. David Da Costa scored once in the last 5 games and also has stable form.

For Sporting KC, Dejan Joveljić is the top scorer with 5 season goals and 1 assist, maintaining stable form with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games. Jacob Bartlett scored 1 season goal and showed stable form with 1 goal in his last 5 games. Shapi Suleymanov has 1 season goal and stable form.

Goalkeepers

James Pantemis, goalkeeper for Portland Timbers, has recorded 0 clean sheets this season. Stefan Cleveland, Sporting KC's goalkeeper, has also recorded 0 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Portland Timbers score an average of 1.4 goals per home game and concede 1.6 goals. Sporting KC concedes an average of 3.75 goals per away game, while scoring 0.75 goals.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.