Major League Soccer
Chicago Fire - New York RB
05/09/2026, 06:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.5
3.8
1.3
2:1
9%3:1
7%2:2
6%3:0
6%3:2
5%What influences the xG?
Chicago Fire
New York RB
League
The Lab
- 1Chicago Fire: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)
- 2New York RB with Robert Voloder: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Chicago Fire with Jonathan Dean: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4New York RB: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5New York RB: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
61%
Draw
20%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
90%
Under 1.5
10%
Over 2.5
73%
Under 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
52%
Under 3.5
48%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
39%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Chicago Fire's strong home offense: The mathematical model predicts 2.45 expected goals for Chicago Fire, supported by a season average of 1.86 home goals and 2.4 goals in recent matches.
- New York RB's defensive weaknesses: New York RB concedes an average of 3.2 goals per away game, indicating significant vulnerability.
- Form disparity: Chicago Fire shows better form with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games compared to New York RB, which recorded no wins and 3 losses during the same period.
Risk Factors
- New York RB's low attacking threat: In their last 5 games, New York RB averaged only 2.8 shots on target.
- New York RB's high away goals conceded: The team concedes an average of 3.2 goals per away game.
Overview
Chicago Fire (4th place, 17 points) host New York RB (11th place, 12 points) in a Major League Soccer match on May 9, 2026, 6:30 PM. Chicago Fire aims to improve their position in the top half of the table.
Form
Chicago Fire's form across all competitions is WWDWL, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games. They recently recorded a loss. New York RB's form is DLDLL, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five matches, including two consecutive losses. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Chicago Fire averages 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.86 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded. They have achieved 5 clean sheets and 7 games have seen over 2.5 goals. New York RB averages 1.45 goals scored and 2.45 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they average 1.4 goals scored and 3.2 goals conceded. They have only 1 clean sheet this season and 7 games have seen over 2.5 goals. Both teams scored in 50% of Chicago Fire's matches and in 64% of New York RB's matches.
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head encounters in Major League Soccer, Chicago Fire secured 2 wins, while New York RB achieved 1 win, and 1 match ended in a draw. The goal difference stands at 4:3 in favor of Chicago Fire. The last meeting on July 27, 2025, ended in a 1:0 home win for Chicago Fire. Chicago Fire has been more dominant in recent matchups.
Key Players
For Chicago Fire, Hugo Cuypers with 10 goals and Philip Zinckernagel with 4 goals and 4 assists are key offensive players. Both players show stable or rising form according to their last 5 games. Jonathan Bamba contributed 2 goals and 2 assists. For New York RB, Julian Hall is a key player with 6 goals and 2 assists. Jorge Ruvalcaba shows rising form with 3 goals, and Ronald Donkor recorded 1 goal and 3 assists. Robin Lod (1 goal/1 assist) is not nominated for Chicago Fire.
Goalkeepers
Chicago Fire's goalkeeper, Chris Brady, has 5 clean sheets this season and an average rating of 6.97. For New York RB, Ethan Horvath is in goal, having achieved 1 clean sheet and an average rating of 6.68.
Influences
Chicago Fire demonstrates significant home strength with an average of 1.86 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded in home games. New York RB, on the other hand, concedes an average of 3.2 goals per away game.