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Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire - New York RB

05/09/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Chicago Fire
2.5
Total xG
3.8
New York RB
1.3
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%

3:0

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CFNYR

Chicago Fire

Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.99
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.54
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.08
Robin Lod not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (2.6 vs 2.1 goals/match)

New York RB

Attack strength (1.35x league average)
+0.30
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chicago Fire: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)

  • 2
    New York RB with Robert Voloder: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Chicago Fire with Jonathan Dean: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    New York RB: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    New York RB: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

20%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

73%

Under 2.5

27%

Over 3.5

52%

Under 3.5

48%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • Chicago Fire's strong home offense: The mathematical model predicts 2.45 expected goals for Chicago Fire, supported by a season average of 1.86 home goals and 2.4 goals in recent matches.
  • New York RB's defensive weaknesses: New York RB concedes an average of 3.2 goals per away game, indicating significant vulnerability.
  • Form disparity: Chicago Fire shows better form with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games compared to New York RB, which recorded no wins and 3 losses during the same period.
Risk Factors
  • New York RB's low attacking threat: In their last 5 games, New York RB averaged only 2.8 shots on target.
  • New York RB's high away goals conceded: The team concedes an average of 3.2 goals per away game.
Overview

Chicago Fire (4th place, 17 points) host New York RB (11th place, 12 points) in a Major League Soccer match on May 9, 2026, 6:30 PM. Chicago Fire aims to improve their position in the top half of the table.

Form

Chicago Fire's form across all competitions is WWDWL, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games. They recently recorded a loss. New York RB's form is DLDLL, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five matches, including two consecutive losses. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Chicago Fire averages 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.86 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded. They have achieved 5 clean sheets and 7 games have seen over 2.5 goals. New York RB averages 1.45 goals scored and 2.45 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they average 1.4 goals scored and 3.2 goals conceded. They have only 1 clean sheet this season and 7 games have seen over 2.5 goals. Both teams scored in 50% of Chicago Fire's matches and in 64% of New York RB's matches.

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head encounters in Major League Soccer, Chicago Fire secured 2 wins, while New York RB achieved 1 win, and 1 match ended in a draw. The goal difference stands at 4:3 in favor of Chicago Fire. The last meeting on July 27, 2025, ended in a 1:0 home win for Chicago Fire. Chicago Fire has been more dominant in recent matchups.

Key Players

For Chicago Fire, Hugo Cuypers with 10 goals and Philip Zinckernagel with 4 goals and 4 assists are key offensive players. Both players show stable or rising form according to their last 5 games. Jonathan Bamba contributed 2 goals and 2 assists. For New York RB, Julian Hall is a key player with 6 goals and 2 assists. Jorge Ruvalcaba shows rising form with 3 goals, and Ronald Donkor recorded 1 goal and 3 assists. Robin Lod (1 goal/1 assist) is not nominated for Chicago Fire.

Goalkeepers

Chicago Fire's goalkeeper, Chris Brady, has 5 clean sheets this season and an average rating of 6.97. For New York RB, Ethan Horvath is in goal, having achieved 1 clean sheet and an average rating of 6.68.

Influences

Chicago Fire demonstrates significant home strength with an average of 1.86 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded in home games. New York RB, on the other hand, concedes an average of 3.2 goals per away game.

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