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Major League Soccer

Charlotte - Atlanta United

07/23/2026, 12:15 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Charlotte
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Atlanta United
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
CHAAU

Charlotte

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Idan Toklomati on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Wilfried Zaha not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
David Schnegg not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

Atlanta United

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.33
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap)
-0.09
Ajani Fortune not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Saba Lobjanidze not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 97% available)
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlanta United with MatĆ­as Galarza Fonda: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlanta United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Atlanta United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Charlotte: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

29%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Charlotte's strong home defense (0.82 goals conceded) meets Atlanta's vulnerable away defense (3.33 goals conceded)
  • Not nominated: Idan Toklomati (5G/1A), Wilfried Zaha (3G/2A), David Schnegg (1G/1A)
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win with a probability of 48%
Risk Factors
  • Atlanta United concedes an extremely high average of 3.33 goals away from home
  • Charlotte's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.7
  • Limited weather data available for this match
Overview

Charlotte (6th place, 21 points) host Atlanta United (14th place, 11 points)

Major League Soccer match on July 23, 2026, 2:15 AM at Bank of America Stadium

Charlotte enters this match as the favorite

Form

Charlotte with form string LDLWW and recently two consecutive wins

Atlanta United with form string WLDLL and recently two consecutive losses

Charlotte recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last matches

Atlanta United recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Charlotte scores an average of 1.60 goals and concedes 1.53 goals per game

Charlotte is strong at home with avg. 1.64 scored and only 0.82 conceded goals

Atlanta United is defensively vulnerable away, conceding avg. 3.33 goals per game

Atlanta United scores an average of 0.93 goals per game this season

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

3 wins for Charlotte and 1 win for Atlanta United

Goal difference of 8:5 in favor of Charlotte

Last duel ended 3:2 for Charlotte

Key Players

Pep Biel scored 7 goals and provided 2 assists at home in 10 games

Kerwin Vargas recorded 2 goals and 3 assists so far this season

Aleksey Miranchuk is dangerous with 5 season goals and 2 assists for Atlanta United

Goalkeepers

Kristijan Kahlina is in goal for Charlotte and has kept 2 clean sheets

Lucas Hoyos guards the goal for Atlanta United and has kept 1 clean sheet

Influences

Match is played on artificial turf at Bank of America Stadium

Charlotte has a strong record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses on artificial turf

Atlanta United struggles on artificial turf with only 2 wins and 5 losses

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