Match report →
Charlotte – Atlanta United2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Charlotte
1.53
Total xG
2.52
Atlanta United
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Charlotte | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.33 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Idan Toklomati on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Wilfried Zaha not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| David Schnegg not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Ajani Fortune not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Saba Lobjanidze not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 97% available) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Charlotte's strong home defense (0.82 goals conceded) meets Atlanta's vulnerable away defense (3.33 goals conceded)
- Not nominated: Idan Toklomati (5G/1A), Wilfried Zaha (3G/2A), David Schnegg (1G/1A)
- The mathematical model predicts a home win with a probability of 48%
Risks
- Atlanta United concedes an extremely high average of 3.33 goals away from home
- Charlotte's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.7
- Limited weather data available for this match
All probabilities
Result
Charlotte48%
Draw29%
Atlanta United23%
Double chance
Charlotte or draw77%
Atlanta United or draw52%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlanta United with Matías Galarza Fonda: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Atlanta United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Atlanta United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Charlotte: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Charlotte 4-4-2 · Atlanta United 4-1-4-1
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 35 W. Cleary
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 3 T. Ream
- 15 H. Toffolo
- 18 K. Calderón Vargas
- 8 A. Westwood
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 11 L. Abada
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 7 A. Goodwin
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 28 W. Reilly
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
- 22 F. Picault
Substitutes
- 21 T. Miller
- 4 A. Privett
- 9 Idan Toklomati
- 13 B. Bronico
- 14 N. Byrne
- 25 T. Smalls
- 28 D. Diani
- 37 R. Aloko
- 22 F. Kessler
- 2 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 5 S. Rode Gregersen
- 20 L. Brennan
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 30 C. Togashi
- 41 T. Majub
- 56 I. Suarez-Couri
- 39 A. Kovac
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →