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Major League Soccer

SJ Earthquakes - Minnesota United

08/23/2026, 02:30 AM

1 : 5
Expected Goals
SJ Earthquakes
1.9
Total xG
3.3
Minnesota United
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
SEMU

SJ Earthquakes

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.33
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.33
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap)
+0.07
Jack Skahan on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Nick Fernandez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Jamar Ricketts on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)

Minnesota United

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap)
-0.13
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Tomás Chancalay on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SJ Earthquakes with Jack Jasinski: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    SJ Earthquakes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Minnesota United with Mauricio Gonzalez: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

25%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • High-scoring venue: PayPal Park averages 4.2 goals per match, with the model estimating a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals
  • Tactical advantage: Minnesota United averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to SJ Earthquakes' 4.0
  • Historical dominance: Minnesota United won all 4 previous head-to-head encounters with a goal difference of 9:2
Risk Factors
  • Lack of recovery: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Form crisis for both: SJ Earthquakes (LDLLL) and Minnesota United (LDDDL) are both winless in their last 5 matches
  • Away defense vulnerability: Minnesota United concede an average of 1.54 goals per away match
Overview

SJ Earthquakes host Minnesota United

Major League Soccer at PayPal Park on August 23, 2026, 4:30 AM

Matchup between 4th place with 33 points and 12th place with 25 points

Form

SJ Earthquakes enter with form LDLLL

Minnesota United arrive with form LDDDL

Legend: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Both teams are without a win in their last 5 matches

Statistics

SJ Earthquakes score an average of 1.9 goals per match

Minnesota United average 1.1 goals per match

The hosts concede 1.56 goals per game at home

The model estimates a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

Historically the visitors dominate with 4 wins in 4 matches

SJ Earthquakes are winless in head-to-head matches

The last encounter ended 1-4 in favor of Minnesota United

Key Players

Preston Judd has scored 11 goals in 19 appearances

Timo Werner contributed 5 goals and 4 assists

Joaquín Pereyra stands out with 6 assists in 20 appearances

Kelvin Yeboah remains dangerous with 8 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Angus Gunn has a season average rating of 6.8

Drake Callender has 20 appearances with a rating of 6.88

Both teams have kept 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Match played on natural grass at PayPal Park

This venue averages 4.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 games at this stadium

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