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Major League Soccer

Cincinnati - Vancouver Whitecaps

07/22/2026, 11:30 PM

4 : 3
Expected Goals
Cincinnati
1.6
Total xG
3.7
Vancouver Whitecaps
2.1
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

2:2

7%

2:1

7%

1:3

6%

2:3

5%
What influences the xG?
CINVW

Cincinnati

Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.56
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
-0.39
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.30
Rising form (3.4 vs 2.4 season average)
+0.30
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.10
Bryan RamĆ­rez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Vancouver Whitecaps

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+1.11
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.52
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.50
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.4 season average)
-0.19
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.06
Sebastian Berhalter not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists)
Cheikh Sabaly on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Weak away record (1.9 vs 2.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cincinnati: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Cincinnati: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (10 of 25)

  • 3
    Vancouver Whitecaps with Thomas MĆ¼ller: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 35% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 17)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

23%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

71%

Under 2.5

29%

Over 3.5

50%

Under 3.5

50%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

71%

No

29%

Key Factors
  • Cincinnati currently scores 3.4 goals per game, more frequently than their season average of 2.4
  • Vancouver averaged a strong 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • The mathematical model predicts a high probability of 71% for over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Sebastian Berhalter and Cheikh Sabaly are missing, only 66% of the seasonal goal threat is available
  • Vancouver's goal production has stalled recently at 1.8 compared to their season average of 2.4
  • Cincinnati concedes a high average of 2.47 goals per game this season
Overview

Cincinnati host Vancouver Whitecaps

Major League Soccer match on July 22, 2026, 11:30 PM

Seventh-placed Cincinnati with 20 points face league leaders Vancouver Whitecaps with 32 points

Form

Cincinnati's form is WDLDW across all competitions

Vancouver Whitecaps' form is DDWLW across all competitions

Both teams recorded a victory in their last match

Form guide: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cincinnati scores an average of 2.4 goals per game while conceding 2.47 goals

At home, Cincinnati averages 2.5 goals scored per match

Vancouver Whitecaps scores 2.43 goals and concedes just 0.86 goals per game on average

In away matches, the Whitecaps concede an average of 1.6 goals

Key Players

Evander scored 9 goals and provided 6 assists in 14 league appearances

KĆ©vin Denkey contributed 9 goals and 2 assists in 14 matches

Brian White shines for the visitors with 10 goals and 2 assists in 14 games

Goalkeepers

Roman Celentano guards the goal for Cincinnati with 2 clean sheets so far

Yohei Takaoka keeps goal for Vancouver and has recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on grass at the TQL Stadium

An average of 6.2 goals were scored in recent matches at the TQL Stadium

Statistics show an 80% rate for over 2.5 goals in these fixtures

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