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Cincinnati – Vancouver Whitecaps4 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Cincinnati
1.63
Total xG
3.68
Vancouver Whitecaps
2.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cincinnati | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +1.11 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.56 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.52 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.50 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | −0.39 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 2.4 season average) | +0.30 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.4 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Bryan Ramírez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sebastian Berhalter not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Cheikh Sabaly on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.9 vs 2.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Cincinnati currently scores 3.4 goals per game, more frequently than their season average of 2.4
- Vancouver averaged a strong 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical model predicts a high probability of 71% for over 2.5 goals
Risks
- Sebastian Berhalter and Cheikh Sabaly are missing, only 66% of the seasonal goal threat is available
- Vancouver's goal production has stalled recently at 1.8 compared to their season average of 2.4
- Cincinnati concedes a high average of 2.47 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
Cincinnati30%
Draw23%
Vancouver Whitecaps47%
Double chance
Cincinnati or draw53%
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw70%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.550%
Under 3.550%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%
Most likely scores
1:2
9%
2:2
7%
2:1
7%
1:3
6%
2:3
5%
4:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cincinnati: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Cincinnati: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (10 of 25)
- Vancouver Whitecaps with Thomas Müller: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 35% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Cincinnati 3-4-2-1 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 12 M. Robinson
- 21 M. Miazga
- 11 S. Gidi
- 20 P. Bucha
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 66 E. Echenique Peña
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
- 9 A. Denkey
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 28 T. Johnson
- 8 O. Larraz
- 20 A. Cubas
- 59 J. Badwal
- 25 R. Gauld
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 24 B. White
Substitutes
- 2 A. Powell
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 13 E. Louro
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 16 T. Barlow
- 24 K. Smith
- 27 B. Anunga
- 29 B. Ramírez León
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 13 T. Müller
- 26 J. Ngando Mbende
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 41 N. Djordjevic
- 3 S. Adekugbe
- 4 R. Veselinović
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