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Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew - New York City

07/22/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Columbus Crew
1.4
Total xG
2.5
New York City
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
CCNYC

Columbus Crew

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-1.00
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.47
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Diego Rossi not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Hugo Picard on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

New York City

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.59
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.14
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.02
Maxi Moralez not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists)
Hannes Wolf on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Keaton Parks not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Columbus Crew: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    New York City with Arnau FarnĆ³s: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Columbus Crew: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Columbus Crew: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Columbus Crew: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Columbus Crew benefits from home advantage, conceding just 1.0 goals per home game compared to New York City's 2.0 goals conceded in away games
  • Columbus Crew dominated recent matches with an average of 62.6% possession, while New York City averaged 55.4% possession
  • Mathematical modeling favors Columbus Crew with a 41% probability of a home win compared to 28% for New York City
Risk Factors
  • Diego Rossi and Hugo Picard are missing for Columbus Crew, leaving only 64% of the usual goal threat available
  • Maxi Moralez, Hannes Wolf and Keaton Parks are missing for New York City, leaving only 69% of the usual goal threat active
  • New York City's offensive goal production is stalling with an average of 1.2 goals recently compared to the season average of 1.7
Overview

Columbus Crew host New York City in Major League Soccer

Match on July 22, 2026, 11:30 PM at Lower.com Field

10th place in the table faces 8th place in the league

Crucial match to close the gap to the upper positions

Form

Columbus Crew recently ended a losing streak with a win (Form: LLLDW)

The home side recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats in their last 5 outings

New York City travels with a balanced record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses (Form: LWWDL)

The visitors suffered a defeat against Nashville SC in their last match

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Columbus Crew score an average of 1.4 goals per game while conceding 1.53

At home their defense is solid, conceding an average of only 1.0 goals per game

New York City score 1.5 goals on average away but concede 2.0 goals per match

Both teams scored occurred in 9 out of 15 games for the visitors this season

Head-to-Head

A total of 5 head-to-head matches have been played between the teams

The record is completely even with 2 wins for each side and 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a clear 3-0 victory for New York City

A total of 19 goals were scored across these matchups

Key Players

NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau stands out with 10 goals and 3 assists this season

Max Arfsten has already contributed 4 goals and 4 assists

Taha Habroune remains stable with an average season rating of 7.02

Goalkeepers

Patrick Schulte is in goal for Columbus Crew with a season average rating of 6.63

Matt Freese guards the net for the visitors with a season rating of 6.92

Both goalkeepers have recorded 3 clean sheets each this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Lower.com Field

Columbus benefit from home advantage with a more stable defense in front of their fans

Previous matches at this venue have produced an average of only 1.33 goals per game

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