Match report →
Columbus Crew – New York City1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Columbus Crew
1.37
Total xG
2.47
New York City
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Columbus Crew | New York City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −1.00 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.59 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.47 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Diego Rossi not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Hugo Picard on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Maxi Moralez not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Hannes Wolf on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Keaton Parks not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Columbus Crew benefits from home advantage, conceding just 1.0 goals per home game compared to New York City's 2.0 goals conceded in away games
- Columbus Crew dominated recent matches with an average of 62.6% possession, while New York City averaged 55.4% possession
- Mathematical modeling favors Columbus Crew with a 41% probability of a home win compared to 28% for New York City
Risks
- Diego Rossi and Hugo Picard are missing for Columbus Crew, leaving only 64% of the usual goal threat available
- Maxi Moralez, Hannes Wolf and Keaton Parks are missing for New York City, leaving only 69% of the usual goal threat active
- New York City's offensive goal production is stalling with an average of 1.2 goals recently compared to the season average of 1.7
All probabilities
Result
Columbus Crew41%
Draw30%
New York City28%
Double chance
Columbus Crew or draw72%
New York City or draw59%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
10%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Columbus Crew: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- New York City with Arnau Farnós: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Columbus Crew: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Columbus Crew: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Columbus Crew: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Columbus Crew 4-4-2 · New York City 4-1-4-1
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 23 M. Farsi
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 4 R. Camacho
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 90 N. Axundzadə
- 50 T. Karumanchi
- 17 S. Tidiany Bangoura
- 27 M. Arfsten
- 19 J. Thiaré
- 16 T. Habroune
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 32 J. Shore
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 88 M. Jones
- 9 B. Traore
Substitutes
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 7 D. Chambost
- 8 D. Gazdag
- 14 A. Sejdic
- 30 H. Picard
- 31 S. Moreira
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 45 O. Presthus
- 46 C. Adams
- 35 M. Ilenčič
- 11 T. Bacelar Martins
- 17 H. Wolf
- 29 M. Carrizo Ballesteros
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 99 S. Garfield-Reid
- 23 M. Murray
- 15 K. Pierre Jr.
- 87 A. Farnós Olive
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