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Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew - Cincinnati

07/25/2026, 11:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Columbus Crew
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Cincinnati
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CCCIN

Columbus Crew

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.58
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Diego Rossi not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Hugo Picard on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
DƔniel Gazdag on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 67% available)

Cincinnati

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.33
Rising form (3.6 vs 2.5 season average)
+0.33
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Bryan RamĆ­rez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.80
+0.80
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cincinnati: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Cincinnati: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (10 of 27)

  • 3
    Columbus Crew: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Columbus Crew: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

28%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Cincinnati recently averaged 6.2 shots on target per match, while Columbus managed only 3.0
  • High-scoring away matches: Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.83 goals on the road while scoring 2.67
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical model calculates an almost identical win chance of 37% for the hosts and 36% for the visitors
Risk Factors
  • Diego Rossi, Hugo Picard, and DĆ”niel Gazdag are missing for Columbus Crew, leaving only 68% of their usual goal threat available
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams have had only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Offensive struggles: Columbus recently averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match
Overview

Columbus Crew (11th place, 16 points) host Cincinnati (5th place, 23 points)

Major League Soccer match on July 26, 2026, 1:15 AM

Clash at the Lower.com Field on grass

Cincinnati looks to close in on the top, while Columbus desperately needs points

Form

Columbus Crew struggles with form: LLDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recently, Columbus suffered a 1-2 defeat against New York City

Overall, they recorded only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches

Cincinnati exhibits a positive trend with a form of DLDWW

Last match ended in a thrilling 4-3 victory over Vancouver Whitecaps

Statistics

Cincinnati boasts a strong attack, averaging 2.5 goals scored per match

However, the visitors also concede an average of 2.5 goals per game

Their defense is highly vulnerable on the road, conceding avg. 3.83 goals

Columbus Crew averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded per match

At home, Columbus's defense is more stable, conceding avg. 1.14 goals

Head-to-Head

Even historical record over 5 head-to-head matches

Both teams have won 2 games each, with 1 match ending in a draw

The overall goal difference is 10-6 in favor of Columbus Crew

The last direct encounter on November 8, 2025, ended in a 2-1 win for Cincinnati

Key Players

Max Arfsten is key for Columbus with 4 goals and 4 assists in 16 appearances

Sekou Tidiany Bangoura shows rising form with 1 goal in 14 games

Taha Habroune contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in 15 matches

For Cincinnati, Evander stands out with 10 goals and 7 assists in 15 games

KĆ©vin Denkey also shines with 10 goals and 2 assists this season

Pavel Bucha adds offensive power with 4 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Patrick Schulte plays in goal for Columbus Crew and kept 3 clean sheets this season

Roman Celentano recorded 2 clean sheets for Cincinnati so far

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Lower.com Field

Home advantage could aid Columbus, who concede only avg. 1.14 goals at home

The historical average at this venue stands at 1.75 goals per game

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