Match report →
Columbus Crew – Cincinnati2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Columbus Crew
1.47
Total xG
2.92
Cincinnati
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Columbus Crew | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.80 | +0.80 |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.58 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.33 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.5 season average) | +0.33 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Diego Rossi not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Hugo Picard on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Dániel Gazdag on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 67% available) | ||
| Bryan Ramírez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Cincinnati recently averaged 6.2 shots on target per match, while Columbus managed only 3.0
- High-scoring away matches: Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.83 goals on the road while scoring 2.67
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical model calculates an almost identical win chance of 37% for the hosts and 36% for the visitors
Risks
- Diego Rossi, Hugo Picard, and Dániel Gazdag are missing for Columbus Crew, leaving only 68% of their usual goal threat available
- Fatigue factor: Both teams have had only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
- Offensive struggles: Columbus recently averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match
All probabilities
Result
Columbus Crew37%
Draw28%
Cincinnati36%
Double chance
Columbus Crew or draw64%
Cincinnati or draw63%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cincinnati: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Cincinnati: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (10 of 27)
- Columbus Crew: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Columbus Crew: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Columbus Crew 3-4-2-1 · Cincinnati 3-4-3
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 31 S. Moreira
- 4 R. Camacho
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 23 M. Farsi
- 7 D. Chambost
- 17 S. Tidiany Bangoura
- 27 M. Arfsten
- 16 T. Habroune
- 8 D. Gazdag
- 19 J. Thiaré
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 11 S. Gidi
- 21 M. Miazga
- 12 M. Robinson
- 20 P. Bucha
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 66 E. Echenique Peña
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 9 A. Denkey
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
Substitutes
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 90 N. Axundzadə
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 14 A. Sejdic
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 30 H. Picard
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 45 O. Presthus
- 46 C. Adams
- 50 T. Karumanchi
- 2 A. Powell
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 13 E. Louro
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 16 T. Barlow
- 24 K. Smith
- 27 B. Anunga
- 29 B. Ramírez León
- 99 A. Jabbari
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