Match report →
Inter Miami – Chicago Fire3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Inter Miami
2.09
Total xG
3.99
Chicago Fire
1.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter Miami | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.99 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.48 | |
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +0.42 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match) | +0.36 | |
| Rising form (4 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.36 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Lionel Messi not in squad (12 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo De Paul not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 38% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Hugo Cuypers on the bench (13 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Robin Lod on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 54% of goal output missing (only 67% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Inter Miami is missing star players Lionel Messi and Rodrigo De Paul, leaving only 64% of their usual goal threat available
- Tactical setup: Inter Miami recently averaged 8.4 shots on target per match, while Chicago Fire averaged 6.4 in their recent games
- Prolific venue: Chase Stadium has averaged 5.2 goals per game recently, with the predictive model pricing a home win at 43%
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability at home: Inter Miami concedes an average of 2.17 goals per home game this season
- Weakened away side: Chicago Fire is missing key players Hugo Cuypers and Robin Lod, leaving only 67% of their usual goal threat available
All probabilities
Result
Inter Miami43%
Draw23%
Chicago Fire35%
Double chance
Inter Miami or draw65%
Chicago Fire or draw57%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Over 3.556%
Under 3.544%
Both teams score
Yes75%
No25%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Chicago Fire: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Chicago Fire: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Inter Miami with Yannick Bright: 3.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Inter Miami: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Inter Miami 4-4-2 · Chicago Fire 4-4-2
Inter Miami
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 4 F. Mura
- 17 I. Fray
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 3 S. Reguilón Rodríguez
- 42 Y. Bright
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 41 D. Ruiz
- 24 M. Silvetti
- 19 G. Berterame
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 16 J. Waterman
- 3 J. Elliott
- 15 A. Gutman
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 6 A. Salétros
- 19 J. Bamba
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
- 9 R. Lewandowski
Substitutes
- 32 N. Allen
- 56 D. Pintér
- 97 D. St Clair
- 76 C. Abadia-Reda
- 70 D. Sumalla
- 59 P. Plambeck
- 52 D. Rey
- 55 I. Urkidi
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 14 V. Radojević
- 17 R. Lod
- 20 J. Shokalook
- 22 M. Pineda
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 5 S. Rogers
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