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Major League Soccer

Inter Miami - Chicago Fire

07/22/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Inter Miami
2.1
Total xG
4.0
Chicago Fire
1.9
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

1:2

7%

3:1

5%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
IMCF

Inter Miami

Attack strength (1.47x league average)
+0.42
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match)
+0.36
Rising form (4 vs 2.8 season average)
+0.36
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.24
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.09
Lionel Messi  not in squad (12 goals, 8 assists)
Rodrigo De Paul not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

Chicago Fire

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.99
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.48
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.02
Hugo Cuypers on the bench (13 goals, 0 assists)
Robin Lod on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
54% of goal output missing (only 67% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter Miami: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Chicago Fire: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Chicago Fire: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Inter Miami with Yannick Bright: 3.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Inter Miami: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

23%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

92%

Under 1.5

8%

Over 2.5

76%

Under 2.5

24%

Over 3.5

56%

Under 3.5

44%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

75%

No

25%

Key Factors
  • Squad impact: Inter Miami is missing star players Lionel Messi and Rodrigo De Paul, leaving only 64% of their usual goal threat available
  • Tactical setup: Inter Miami recently averaged 8.4 shots on target per match, while Chicago Fire averaged 6.4 in their recent games
  • Prolific venue: Chase Stadium has averaged 5.2 goals per game recently, with the predictive model pricing a home win at 43%
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability at home: Inter Miami concedes an average of 2.17 goals per home game this season
  • Weakened away side: Chicago Fire is missing key players Hugo Cuypers and Robin Lod, leaving only 67% of their usual goal threat available
Overview

Inter Miami (2nd place, 31 points) host Chicago Fire (3rd place, 26 points) at Chase Stadium

MLS match on July 23, 2026, 1:30 AM

A crucial top-tier encounter in the upper half of the table

Form

Inter Miami is in excellent shape with an "LWWWW" form, including four consecutive wins

Their home record shows four victories out of the last five games

Chicago Fire travels with an "LLWWW" form, carrying three consecutive wins

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Inter Miami averages 2.6 goals scored and 1.87 goals conceded per game this season

At home, their conceded average rises to 2.17 per match

Chicago Fire averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded in away games

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 11 out of 15 matches involving Inter Miami

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Inter Miami recorded 2 wins, Chicago Fire had 1 win, and there was 1 draw

The last meeting ended in a high-scoring 3:5 away win for Chicago Fire on September 30, 2025

Historically, the home team has had the upper hand in these encounters

Key Players

GermĂĄn Berterame scored 7 goals and provided 3 assists in 15 league appearances

Luis SuĂĄrez has registered 6 goals in 11 appearances this season

Mateo Silvetti recorded 3 goals and 4 assists in 10 games

Philip Zinckernagel stands out with 5 goals and 7 assists in 14 games for the visitors

Maren Haile-Selassie contributed 3 goals and 2 assists in 14 appearances

Anton Salétros holds a solid average season rating of 7.01

Goalkeepers

Rocco RĂ­os Novo starts in goal for Inter Miami, averaging a rating of 8.09 across 1 appearance

Chris Brady played 14 times for Chicago Fire, recording 2 clean sheets on the road

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Chase Stadium

Games at this venue have produced a high average of 5.2 total goals over the last 5 matches

Miami's home form with 16 goals scored demonstrates their strong home attack

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