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Portland Timbers – SJ Earthquakes1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Portland Timbers
1.18
Total xG
2.74
SJ Earthquakes
1.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portland Timbers | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −1.19 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.61 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| N. Tsakiris not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| T. Werner not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 77% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of an away win for SJ Earthquakes at 45%
- SJ Earthquakes is in 2nd place with 29 points and has a significantly better season record than Portland
- Portland Timbers shows a rising goal rate (2.0 current vs. 1.6 season average), while SJ Earthquakes' offense is declining (1.8 current vs. 2.2 season average)
Risks
- SJ Earthquakes' goal production is faltering (1.8 goals in last 5 games) compared to their season average of 2.2 goals
- Portland Timbers concedes an average of 1.92 goals per game this season
- SJ Earthquakes has suffered losses in their last two matches
All probabilities
Result
Portland Timbers27%
Draw28%
SJ Earthquakes45%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Portland Timbers or draw55%
SJ Earthquakes or draw73%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portland Timbers with Diego Chará: 5.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- SJ Earthquakes with Paul Marie: 8 goals/90 min. Without: 2.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- SJ Earthquakes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- SJ Earthquakes: 35% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 20)
- SJ Earthquakes: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Portland Timbers 4-2-3-1 · SJ Earthquakes 4-2-3-1
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 5 B. Bye
- 20 F. Surman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 17 C. Bassett
- 99 K. Velde
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 19 K. Kelsy Genez
SJ Earthquakes
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 28 B. Kikanovic
- 5 D. Munie
- 18 R. Roberts
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 34 B. Leroux
- 7 O. Bouda
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 16 J. Skahan
- 19 P. Judd
Substitutes
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 9 F. Mora Aliaga
- 16 S. Jura
- 23 I. Smith
- 25 T. Muse
- 28 A. Aravena Guzmán
- 6 A. Bonetig
- 29 J. Mosquera
- 88 A. Guerra
- 3 P. Marie
- 4 D. Romney
- 6 I. Harkes
- 40 J. González Mendoza
- 31 F. Montali
- 32 N. Adimabua
- 79 D. Johnson
- 25 M. Floriani
- 17 J. Jasinski
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