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Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers - SJ Earthquakes

05/24/2026, 01:30 AM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Portland Timbers
1.2
Total xG
2.7
SJ Earthquakes
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PTSE

Portland Timbers

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-1.19
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.61
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.11
Full strength squad available

SJ Earthquakes

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.08
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.02
N. Tsakiris not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
T. Werner not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 77% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portland Timbers with Diego CharĆ”: 5.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes with Paul Marie: 8 goals/90 min. Without: 2.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    SJ Earthquakes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    SJ Earthquakes: 35% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 20)

  • 5
    SJ Earthquakes: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

28%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of an away win for SJ Earthquakes at 45%
  • SJ Earthquakes is in 2nd place with 29 points and has a significantly better season record than Portland
  • Portland Timbers shows a rising goal rate (2.0 current vs. 1.6 season average), while SJ Earthquakes' offense is declining (1.8 current vs. 2.2 season average)
Risk Factors
  • SJ Earthquakes' goal production is faltering (1.8 goals in last 5 games) compared to their season average of 2.2 goals
  • Portland Timbers concedes an average of 1.92 goals per game this season
  • SJ Earthquakes has suffered losses in their last two matches
Overview

Portland Timbers (13th place, 14 points) host SJ Earthquakes (2nd place, 29 points) in Major League Soccer

Kick-off is on May 24, 2026, 2:30 AM

The Earthquakes aim to solidify their league position, while the Timbers seek to close the gap to the top

Form

Portland Timbers show a form of WLWDL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) in their last five games

Their last match ended in a loss

SJ Earthquakes have a form of WDDLL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses) and lost their last two fixtures

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Portland Timbers averages 1.62 goals scored and concedes 1.92 goals per game this season

At home, these values are an average of 1.62 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded

SJ Earthquakes averages 2.21 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game

Away from home, the team averages 2.14 goals scored and concedes 1.14 goals

Head-to-Head

In four head-to-head matches, the record is even: two wins for Portland, one for SJ Earthquakes, one draw

The goal difference stands at 8:8

The last encounter on June 14, 2025, ended 1:1

The home team has been more dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

For Portland Timbers, Kevin Kelsy (5 goals, 2 assists) is an important attacker with a rising form trend

Kristoffer Velde (4 goals, 1 assist) and Cole Bassett (2 goals, 2 assists) are also central

For SJ Earthquakes, Preston Judd (9 goals, 2 assists), Ousseni Bouda (5 goals, 1 assist) and Beau Leroux (2 goals, 3 assists) stand out

Goalkeepers

James Pantemis of Portland Timbers recorded one clean sheet in 13 appearances

Daniel of SJ Earthquakes, however, recorded five clean sheets in 14 matches

Influences

Portland Timbers shows a home average of 1.62 goals in offense and a stable defense with 1.0 goal conceded per game

SJ Earthquakes is strong offensively away from home with 2.14 goals and solid defensively with 1.14 goals conceded

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