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Los Angeles FC – Seattle Sounders1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Los Angeles FC
1.34
Total xG
2.48
Seattle Sounders
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Los Angeles FC | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −1.08 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.78 | +0.78 |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.59 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.50 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.45 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Stephen Eustaquio on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nathan Ordaz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Los Angeles FC has a home win probability of 40%, according to mathematical analysis
- Seattle Sounders show more stable form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss in their last 5 games
- Los Angeles FC has been dominant in recent head-to-head matches, as shown by their 4:0 win in the last encounter
Risks
- Los Angeles FC has suffered three consecutive losses recently
- Los Angeles FC's goal production is stagnant at 1.4 recently, compared to a season average of 1.9 goals
- Los Angeles FC are missing Stephen Eustaquio (1G/1A) and Nathan Ordaz (2G/0A) from the lineup
All probabilities
Result
Los Angeles FC40%
Draw30%
Seattle Sounders30%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Los Angeles FC or draw70%
Seattle Sounders or draw60%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
10%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Los Angeles FC with Nathan Ordaz: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Seattle Sounders with Hassani Dotson: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Los Angeles FC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Los Angeles FC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Los Angeles FC 4-3-3 · Seattle Sounders 4-4-2
Los Angeles FC
- 12 T. Hasal
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 5 R. Porteous
- 33 A. Long
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 8 M. Delgado
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 11 T. Tillman
- 30 D. Martínez Morales
- 7 H. Son
- 99 D. Bouanga
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 20 K. Kim
- 25 J. Ragen
- 5 N. Tolo
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 31 H. Dotson
- 7 C. Roldan
- 14 P. Rothrock
- 13 J. Morris
- 11 A. Rusnák
Substitutes
- 46 S. Antunes Eustáquio
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 27 N. Ordaz
- 29 A. Smoliakov
- 65 A. Boudri
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 31 C. Carter
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 16 A. Roldan
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 33 C. Baker
- 35 A. Lopez
- 37 S. Brunell
- 90 S. Gomez
- 95 O. De Rosario
- 45 P. Kingston
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