Match report →
San Diego – Vancouver Whitecaps2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
San Diego
1.26
Total xG
2.82
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Diego | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.3 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.02 | |
| Luca Bombino on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Emmanuel Sabbi not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Cheikh Sabaly not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Clear Favorites: Vancouver Whitecaps lead the league and are predicted with a 43% probability to win away
- Strong Defense: Vancouver Whitecaps concede an average of only 0.77 goals per game
- Home Offense: San Diego shows a solid home offense with an average of 2.1 goals per game
- Away Offense: Vancouver Whitecaps score an average of 2.25 goals per away game
Risks
- Injury Concerns: Vancouver Whitecaps are missing key players such as A. Cubas (Yellow Card Suspension) and Y. Takaoka (Red Card Suspension), E. Sabbi (2G/2A) and C. Sabaly (2G/1A)
- Guests' Form Decline: Vancouver Whitecaps' goal production is currently stalling (1.6 goals), while the season average is 2.3 goals
- Home Team's Draw Tendency: San Diego drew their last three matches
All probabilities
Result
San Diego29%
Draw28%
Vancouver Whitecaps43%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
San Diego or draw57%
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw71%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vancouver Whitecaps with Thomas Müller: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- San Diego with Alex Mighten: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 38% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 16)
Lineups
San Diego 4-3-3 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
San Diego
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 26 M. Duah
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 8 O. Valakari
- 15 P. Soma
- 19 D. Vazquez
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
- 90 A. Pellegrino
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 28 T. Johnson
- 59 J. Badwal
- 16 S. Berhalter
- 17 K. Cabrera Nakamura
- 13 T. Müller
- 22 A. Jackson
- 24 B. White
Substitutes
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 18 D. Ferree
- 21 B. Duke
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 27 L. Bombino
- 77 A. Mighten
- 9 L. Morgan
- 29 A. Saidi
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 6 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 15 S. Schonlau
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 41 N. Djordjevic
- 30 A. Zendejas Rodríguez
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 97 L. Mackenzie
- 4 R. Veselinović
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