Major League Soccer
St. Louis City - Sporting KC
07/17/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.5
0.9
1:1
13%1:0
12%2:0
11%0:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
St. Louis City
Sporting KC
League
The Lab
- 1Sporting KC with Taylor Calheira: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2St. Louis City: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 3St. Louis City with Rafael Santos: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 4St. Louis City: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Sporting KC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
28%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Home strength vs away weakness: St. Louis City concedes only 0.7 goals at home, while Sporting KC allows a massive 4.4 goals per game away
- Tactical offensive drive: Sporting KC averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Mathematical edge: The prediction model calculates a 54% probability for a St. Louis City home victory
Risk Factors
- Starting goalkeeper missing: Roman Bürki is out injured, forcing Ben Lundt to start with only 1 season appearance
- Rising offensive trend for the visitors: Sporting KC currently scores more frequently, averaging 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.0
Overview
St. Louis City (12th place, 16 points) faces Sporting KC (15th place, 11 points)
Major League Soccer match on July 17, 2026, 2:30 AM at Energizer Park
A key clash in the lower half of the table
The hosts enter this home game as favorites
Form
St. Louis City has a form of LWWDW
Most recently they secured a 3-0 win against Austin
Sporting KC shows a form of DLWWL
Their last match ended in a 1-2 defeat against New York RB
Both teams show a positive form trend according to advancedStats
Statistics
St. Louis City averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded this season
At home, their defense is solid, conceding only 0.7 goals per game
Sporting KC concedes an average of 2.57 goals per game this season
Their defense is extremely vulnerable away from home, conceding 4.4 goals per game
The visitors average exactly 1.0 goals scored per away game
Head-to-Head
5 head-to-head matches in history
Even record with 1 win for each team and 3 draws
The goal difference in these matches stands at 9-9
The last encounter on May 15, 2025 ended in a 2-2 draw
Key Players
Marcel Hartel leads the hosts with 3 goals and 1 assist, carrying a 7.64 rating
Daniel Ethan Edelman scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists (6.94 rating)
Sang-bin Jeong has recorded 1 goal and 1 assist (6.75 rating)
For the visitors, Dejan Joveljić stands out with 6 goals and 1 assist (6.98 rating)
Calvin Harris has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists so far (6.78 rating)
Manu García completes the attack with 1 goal and 3 assists (7.02 rating)
Goalkeepers
Ben Lundt is in goal for St. Louis City, holding a rating of 7.06 after 1 game
Stefan Cleveland guards the net for Sporting KC, averaging a 6.73 rating in 5 matches
St. Louis City has recorded 2 clean sheets this season, while Sporting KC is yet to keep a clean sheet
Influences
St. Louis City benefits from home advantage, conceding only 0.7 goals per game at Energizer Park
Matches at Energizer Park have averaged 3.4 goals per game this season
Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 out of 5 home matches
The match will be played on natural grass