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St. Louis City – Sporting KC3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
St. Louis City
1.62
Total xG
2.49
Sporting KC
0.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Louis City | Sporting KC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.42x league average) | −0.93 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.81 | +0.81 |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.58 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.51 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1 season average) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Chris Durkin on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home strength vs away weakness: St. Louis City concedes only 0.7 goals at home, while Sporting KC allows a massive 4.4 goals per game away
- Tactical offensive drive: Sporting KC averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Mathematical edge: The prediction model calculates a 54% probability for a St. Louis City home victory
Risks
- Starting goalkeeper missing: Roman Bürki is out injured, forcing Ben Lundt to start with only 1 season appearance
- Rising offensive trend for the visitors: Sporting KC currently scores more frequently, averaging 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.0
All probabilities
Result
St. Louis City54%
Draw28%
Sporting KC19%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw81%
Sporting KC or draw46%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:0
12%
2:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting KC with Taylor Calheira: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- St. Louis City: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- St. Louis City with Rafael Santos: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- St. Louis City: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Sporting KC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
St. Louis City 3-4-3 · Sporting KC 4-2-3-1
St. Louis City
- 39 B. Lundt
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 21 D. Polvara
- 6 C. Wallem
- 10 E. Löwen
- 24 D. Edelman
- 14 T. Totland
- 77 S. Jeong
- 11 S. Becher
- 17 M. Hartel
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 2 I. James
- 15 J. Miller
- 5 O. Blorian
- 99 J. Reid
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 22 Z. Bassong
- 7 O. Capemba
- 6 M. García Alonso
- 11 C. Harris
- 9 D. Joveljić
Substitutes
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 22 K. Hiebert
- 28 M. Perez
- 59 M. Joyner
- 99 J. Orozco
- 27 F. Fol
- 7 T. Ostrák
- 31 C. Olivares
- 29 P. Ault
- 18 E. Karic
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 8 J. Davis
- 14 M. Tschantret
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 17 S. Afrifa
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 23 E. Bartlow
- 93 M. Suleymanov
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