🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake - Minnesota United

08/16/2026, 01:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Real Salt Lake
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Minnesota United
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RSLMU

Real Salt Lake

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.60
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.40
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.15
Zavier Gozo not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Minnesota United

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Kelvin Yeboah on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Salt Lake: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 2
    Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Minnesota United with Bongokuhle Hlongwane: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Real Salt Lake: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Real Salt Lake: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

28%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Not nominated: Zavier Gozo (6 goals, 4 assists)
  • Not nominated: Kelvin Yeboah (8 goals)
  • Tactical aspect: Minnesota averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to 4.0 for Real Salt Lake
Risk Factors
  • Form trend: Both teams display a negative trend in recent performances
  • Head-to-head record: Real Salt Lake has failed to win any of the last five matches against Minnesota
  • Away defense: Minnesota United concedes an average of 1.58 goals in away matches
Overview

Real Salt Lake hosts Minnesota United at America First Field

Major League Soccer match on August 16, 2026, 3:30 AM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 40%

Form

Real Salt Lake holds a WDLLD form with one win and two draws in five matches

Minnesota United features a LDLDD form and remains winless in their last five matches

Both teams show a negative trend in their recent form

Statistics

Real Salt Lake scores 1.64 goals and concedes 0.73 goals per game at home on average

Minnesota United averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 goals conceded away from home

Both teams scored in 13 out of 17 matches played by Real Salt Lake

Head-to-Head

Five head-to-head matches have been recorded in recent history

Minnesota United secured two wins while three matches ended in a draw

The last direct meeting ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Sergi Solans has recorded seven goals and three assists this season

Diego Luna has contributed four goals and one assist so far

Joaquín Pereyra is the top playmaker for the visitors with six assists

Goalkeepers

Rafael Cabral kept two clean sheets this season

Drake Callender recorded five clean sheets so far

Influences

An average of 3.2 goals per game were scored on the grass pitch of America First Field

Real Salt Lake capitalizes on home advantage with only eight goals conceded in eleven home games

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.