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Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers - San Diego

08/20/2026, 02:30 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Portland Timbers
1.5
Total xG
2.7
San Diego
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PTSD

Portland Timbers

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.18
Antony on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)

San Diego

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.22
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.18
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Anders Dreyer not in squad (8 goals, 7 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 63% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portland Timbers: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    San Diego: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Portland Timbers with JosƩ Luis Caicedo Barrera: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    San Diego with David Vazquez: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    San Diego: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

29%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Offensive form curve: Portland currently scores an average of 2.4 goals per match which is higher than their season average of 1.8
  • Tactical dominance: Portland averaged 5.4 shots on target and 58% possession in recent matches
  • Away vulnerability: San Diego concedes an average of 2.8 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Absence of Anders Dreyer severely weakens San Diego with only 63% of their usual goal threat available
  • San Diego's attacking slump with an average of only 1.0 goals in recent matches compared to 1.7 on the season
Overview

Portland Timbers host San Diego in Major League Soccer

Match on August 20, 2026, 2:30 AM at Providence Park

Clash of table neighbors with Portland in 11th place and San Diego in 10th

Both teams currently have 24 points

Form

Portland Timbers with form WDWWL and 3 wins from the last 5 matches

San Diego shows form LLWDW with 2 wins and 2 losses

The recent trend favors Portland with an upward form curve

San Diego has recently shown a declining trend

Statistics

Portland scores an average of 1.79 goals and concedes 1.84 goals this season

San Diego averages 1.74 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per match

Away from home San Diego concedes an extremely high average of 2.8 goals per game

In home matches Portland scores an average of 1.82 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between the teams

San Diego has recorded 1 win while Portland has taken 3 wins

The last meeting ended in a 2:1 victory

A total of 18 goals have been scored in these direct matchups

Key Players

Kevin Kelsy is Portland's most dangerous attacker with 9 goals this season

Kristoffer Velde impresses with 4 goals and 4 assists in midfield

For San Diego Marcus Ingvartsen stands out as top scorer with 11 goals

Onni Valakari contributes 3 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

James Pantemis guards the Portland goal and has kept 1 clean sheet so far

CJ dos Santos plays for San Diego and features a strong season rating of 7.1

San Diego has recorded a total of 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at Providence Park

Portland has a home record of 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses on this surface

The venue history shows high-scoring games with an average of 4.0 goals per match

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