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Major League Soccer

Seattle Sounders - Austin

08/20/2026, 01:30 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Seattle Sounders
2.0
Total xG
3.0
Austin
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
SSAUS

Seattle Sounders

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.27
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.17
JesĂșs Ferreira not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 72% available)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Austin

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.77
Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.14
Myrto Uzuni on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Guilherme Biro on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
J. Rosales on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 58% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Seattle Sounders with Paul Arriola: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Austin with Ilie SĂĄnchez: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Austin: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

24%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad impact for Austin: Only 58% of usual starting strength available, with key player Myrto Uzuni (6 goals) missing
  • Vulnerable away defense: Austin concedes an average of 3.62 goals per away match this season
  • Struggling offensive tactics: Seattle averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams have only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Severe form crisis for the hosts: Seattle is on a 5-match losing streak
  • Missing key elements: Key attacker JesĂșs Ferreira is not nominated in the starting lineup for Seattle
Overview

Seattle Sounders (12th place, 24 points) host Austin (14th place, 17 points) at Lumen Field

Major League Soccer match on August 20, 2026, 3:30 AM

Both teams are struggling in the lower regions of the table

Form

Seattle Sounders form: LLLLL

Austin form: LWLLL

According to advanced stats, both teams show a negative form trend

Seattle's goal production is stalling, averaging 0.6 goals recently compared to 1.2 on average

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Seattle averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game

Austin's away defense is highly vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.62 goals per away game

Seattle scores 1.08 goals on average in home matches

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in total

Even record with 2 wins for each team and 1 draw

The last meeting on July 23, 2026, ended in a 3-1 win for Austin

Key Players

Paul Rothrock leads Seattle with 5 goals this season

Albert RusnĂĄk recorded 3 goals and 4 assists for the home side

Facundo Torres has already provided 5 assists for Austin

Goalkeepers

Andrew Thomas has kept 5 clean sheets for Seattle this season

Damian Las starts without any previous season appearances for Austin

Both goalkeepers will be crucial in this matchup

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at Lumen Field

Seattle's record on this surface is 4 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Austin lost their only game on artificial turf this season with 1-3

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