Match report →
Toronto – Nashville SC2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Toronto
0.99
Total xG
2.32
Nashville SC
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toronto | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −1.08 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.52 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.4 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Djordje Mihailovic on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Theo Corbeanu on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Andy Nájar on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Patrick Yazbek on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jeison Palacios on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 2.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form and standings gap: Table leaders Nashville SC arrive with 4 wins from their last 5 matches, while Toronto sits in 11th place
- Historical dominance: Nashville SC has won all 4 previous direct encounters against Toronto
- Defensive superiority: While Toronto has yet to secure a clean sheet at home, Nashville SC concedes an average of just 1.0 goals on the road
Risks
- Key absences: Toronto is missing key offensive players Djordje Mihailovic and Theo Corbeanu
- Shorter rest period: Toronto has only 4 days of rest compared to Nashville's 5 days
- Defensive vulnerability: Toronto concedes an average of 1.83 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
Toronto26%
Draw31%
Nashville SC43%
Double chance
Toronto or draw57%
Nashville SC or draw74%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
0:2
9%
1:2
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Toronto: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
Lineups
Toronto 4-4-2 · Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 38 J. Gilman
- 25 W. Zimmerman
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 22 R. Laryea
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 90 L. Morgan
- 20 D. Salloi
- 9 J. Sargent
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
- 5 J. Maher
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 7 C. Espinoza
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 11 E. Saad
- 9 S. Surridge
Substitutes
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 19 K. Franklin
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 44 R. Edwards
- 71 M. Cimermancic
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 15 N. Gomis
- 1 J. Willis
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 8 P. Yazbek
- 19 A. Muyl
- 22 J. Bauer
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 37 A. Qasem
- 14 S. Mohammed
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