Major League Soccer
Toronto - Nashville SC
09/09/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.3
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
11%0:2
9%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Toronto
Nashville SC
League
The Lab
- 1Nashville SC: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- 2Toronto: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
31%
Away Win
43%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
57%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Form and standings gap: Table leaders Nashville SC arrive with 4 wins from their last 5 matches, while Toronto sits in 11th place
- Historical dominance: Nashville SC has won all 4 previous direct encounters against Toronto
- Defensive superiority: While Toronto has yet to secure a clean sheet at home, Nashville SC concedes an average of just 1.0 goals on the road
Risk Factors
- Key absences: Toronto is missing key offensive players Djordje Mihailovic and Theo Corbeanu
- Shorter rest period: Toronto has only 4 days of rest compared to Nashville's 5 days
- Defensive vulnerability: Toronto concedes an average of 1.83 goals per game this season
Overview
Toronto hosts Nashville SC at BMO Field
Major League Soccer match on September 10, 2026, 1:30 AM
League leaders Nashville SC (1st place, 53 points) travel as favorites to face Toronto (11th place, 26 points)
A highly uneven matchup with the visitors looking to solidify their top spot
Form
Toronto shows a stable run with a form of WDWDD
The home team is unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 2 wins and 3 draws
Nashville SC enters the match with a strong form of WWWWD
The visitors recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Toronto scores an average of 1.57 goals per game and concedes 1.83 goals
Nashville SC impresses offensively with 2.04 goals and allows only 0.74 goals conceded on average
Both teams scored in 100% of the historical games played at this venue
Toronto is still waiting for their first clean sheet at home this season
Head-to-Head
There have been 4 head-to-head matches between these teams
Nashville SC dominates the historical record with 4 wins and 0 losses
The goal difference stands at 7 to 2 goals in favor of the away side
The last direct duel ended in a 1-0 victory for Nashville SC on July 20, 2025
Key Players
Josh Sargent leads Toronto's attack with 7 goals and 2 assists
DĆ”niel SallĆ³i contributed 6 goals and 5 assists for the home side
Alonso Coello controls the midfield with an average rating of 7.23
Hany Mukhtar shines for the visitors with 10 goals and 6 assists
Sam Surridge has already scored 13 goals this season for Nashville SC
Cristian Espinoza drives the midfield with 9 assists recorded
Goalkeepers
Goalkeeper Luka Gavran represents Toronto and has recorded 3 clean sheets this season
Brian Schwake guards the net for Nashville SC with 11 clean sheets to his name
Gavran has yet to keep a clean sheet at home, while Schwake has secured 7 clean sheets in away matches
Influences
An average of 4.4 goals were scored per match historically at BMO Field
Toronto plays on grass, holding a home record of 27 goals scored and 27 goals conceded
Nashville SC remains highly stable on the road with 11 goals scored and only 5 goals conceded away