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Major League Soccer

CF Montréal - DC United

08/15/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
CF Montréal
1.3
Total xG
2.9
DC United
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CMDU

CF Montréal

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.93
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.39
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Matty Longstaff on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Daniel Ríos on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Efraín Morales  not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

DC United

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.46
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.11
Peglow on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Lucas Bartlett  not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    DC United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    DC United: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 3
    CF Montréal with Wikelman José Carmona Torres: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

  • 4
    DC United: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

27%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Clear form difference with Montréal winless in 5 matches compared to DC United's unbeaten run of DDDWD
  • DC United averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, showing high offensive activity
  • Montréal's squad strength is reduced to 80% of active goals share due to key players missing
Risk Factors
  • DC United is missing Lucas Bartlett (2 goals) and Peglow (1 goal, 3 assists), reducing lineup strength to 84%
  • CF Montréal's defense is highly vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.94 goals per game this season
Overview

CF Montréal (14th place, 16 points) host DC United (9th place, 23 points) at Stade Saputo

MLS match on August 15, 2026, 11:30 PM

The visitors travel as the statistical favorites

Form

CF Montréal is winless in 5 matches with a form of DDLLD

The summary shows 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

DC United is more stable with a form of DDDWD, including 1 win and 4 draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

CF Montréal scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes 1.94 goals per game

DC United scores an average of 1.44 goals while conceding 1.61

Montréal's defense is more stable at home, conceding 1.11 goals per game compared to 2.78 away

Stade Saputo average stands at 1.8 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 1 win for each team and 3 draws in 5 matches

The last head-to-head match ended in a spectacular 4-4 draw on May 23, 2026

Key Players

Prince Owusu leads Montréal with 10 goals and 6 assists

Victor Loturi contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season

Tai Baribo is the most dangerous attacker for DC United with 11 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Sean Johnson plays in goal for DC United, with a rating of 6.77 and 4 clean sheets this season

Thomas Guilier guards the goal for Montréal with a rating of 6.71 in home games at Stade Saputo

Influences

Stade Saputo shows a low scoring trend with an average of 1.8 goals per game

The match will be played on a grass surface

Montréal's home defensive record is significantly stronger than their away record

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