Match report →
Atlanta United – Orlando City2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Atlanta United
1.76
Total xG
3.23
Orlando City
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlanta United | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.98 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Fafà Picault on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive form trend: Atlanta United is currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) compared to their season average of 1.2
- High-scoring arena history: Mercedes-Benz Stadium statistics show a high-scoring average of 3.2 goals per game and an 80% BTTS rate
- Low squad impact despite absence: The home team retains 93% of its squad strength despite Fafâ Picault being out
Risks
- Physical fatigue: Atlanta United plays with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Away defensive weakness: Orlando City concedes an extremely high average of 3.36 goals per away match
- Artificial turf struggles: Atlanta United has suffered 6 defeats in 10 matches on this surface
All probabilities
Result
Atlanta United43%
Draw26%
Orlando City31%
Double chance
Atlanta United or draw69%
Orlando City or draw57%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Orlando City with Justin Ellis starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (14/7 games, last 23)
- Atlanta United: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Tristan Muyumba: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Orlando City: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 22)
- Atlanta United: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Atlanta United 4-3-3 · Orlando City 4-3-3
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 27 P. Díaz Huincales
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 35 A. Fortune
- 14 M. Amaro Viega
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 36 B. Embolo
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 6 R. Jansson
- 44 B. Rhein Goncalves
- 24 G. Dorsey
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 22 J. Ellis
- 10 M. Ojeda
- 7 A. Griezmann
Substitutes
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 20 L. Brennan
- 19 S. Santos Gomes
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 47 M. Edwards
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 30 C. Togashi
- 22 F. Picault
- 28 W. Reilly
- 9 D. Dike
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 14 T. Spicer
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 5 L. de Aquino
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