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Major League Soccer

Atlanta United - Orlando City

09/09/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Atlanta United
1.8
Total xG
3.2
Orlando City
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
AUOC

Atlanta United

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
+0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.11
FafĂ  Picault on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)

Orlando City

Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.98
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Orlando City with Justin Ellis starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (14/7 games, last 23)

  • 2
    Atlanta United: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 3
    Tristan Muyumba: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Orlando City: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 22)

  • 5
    Atlanta United: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

26%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • Offensive form trend: Atlanta United is currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) compared to their season average of 1.2
  • High-scoring arena history: Mercedes-Benz Stadium statistics show a high-scoring average of 3.2 goals per game and an 80% BTTS rate
  • Low squad impact despite absence: The home team retains 93% of its squad strength despite FafĂą Picault being out
Risk Factors
  • Physical fatigue: Atlanta United plays with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Away defensive weakness: Orlando City concedes an extremely high average of 3.36 goals per away match
  • Artificial turf struggles: Atlanta United has suffered 6 defeats in 10 matches on this surface
Overview

Atlanta United (14th place, 22 points) host Orlando City (8th place, 28 points)

Match at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on September 9, 2026, 11:30 PM

A key matchup in Major League Soccer

Form

Atlanta United enters with a form of WWWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their recent outings

Orlando City travels with a form of DLWDW

2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss for the visitors

Statistics

Atlanta United scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.74 goals per match

Orlando City averages 1.65 goals scored and 2.35 goals conceded per game

15 out of 23 games for both teams ended with both teams scoring

The home side saw over 2.5 goals in 14 matches, while the visitors had 16 such games

Head-to-Head

An even head-to-head record over the last 2 years with 2 wins for each team and 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a 1:1 draw on May 16, 2026

A total of 6:8 goals from Atlanta United's perspective in these 5 matchups

Key Players

Miguel AlmirĂłn shines with 4 goals and 4 assists, averaging a 7.44 rating

Aleksey Miranchuk contributes 5 goals and 7 assists this season

Tristan Muyumba recently scored 2 goals in his last 5 matches

For the visitors, Antoine Griezmann impresses with 5 goals and 3 assists in just 8 games

MartĂ­n Ojeda leads his team with 11 goals this season

Justin Ellis has provided 7 assists in 16 appearances

Goalkeepers

Lucas Hoyos protects the goal for Atlanta United and kept 1 clean sheet in 23 appearances

Maxime Crépeau is in goal for Orlando City, recording 3 clean sheets in 22 games

Both goalkeepers show a similar average rating

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf, where Atlanta United has a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses

Mercedes-Benz Stadium statistics show a high-scoring average of 3.2 goals per game

In 80% of the matches in this arena, both teams have scored

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