Match report →
Dallas – Austin0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Dallas
1.85
Total xG
2.81
Austin
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Dallas | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.46 | |
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.44 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Logan Farrington on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Guilherme Biro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jon Bell on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage for Dallas: Strong home attack (average 2.00 goals per game) meets Austin's highly vulnerable away defense (2.46 goals conceded per game)
- Historical dominance: Dallas won 4 out of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Austin and holds a strong home record
- Tactical edge: Dallas recently averaged 5.8 shots on target per game in recent matches showing strong offensive threat
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability for Dallas, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per home game
- Austin's stabilized form with 0 losses in their last 5 matches
- Restricted data due to missing weather data
All probabilities
Result
Dallas57%
Draw25%
Austin18%
Double chance
Dallas or draw82%
Austin or draw43%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dallas: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Dallas: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against St. Louis City: 2 goals (81', 90+7')
- Austin: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Seattle Sounders: 2 goals (86', 90+1')
Lineups
Dallas 3-4-2-1 · Austin 3-4-2-1
Dallas
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 18 S. Moore
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 12 C. Cappis
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 9 P. Musa
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 3 M. Desler
- 5 O. Svatok
- 23 Ž. Kolmanič
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 38 E. Torres
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
- 21 C. Ramírez
Substitutes
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 14 H. Johansson
- 23 L. Farrington
- 28 S. Sarver
- 32 N. Norris
- 40 J. Sirois
- 10 S. Moreno
- 33 C. Holstad
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 10 M. Uzuni
- 12 D. Las
- 15 J. Bell
- 32 M. Burton
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 22 C. Applewhite
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
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