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Major League Soccer

Dallas - Austin

09/20/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Dallas
1.9
Total xG
2.8
Austin
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
DALAUS

Dallas

Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap)
+0.09
Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.03
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Logan Farrington on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists)

Austin

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.46
Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.44
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02
Guilherme Biro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Jon Bell on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dallas: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Dallas: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against St. Louis City: 2 goals (81', 90+7')

  • 3
    Austin: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Seattle Sounders: 2 goals (86', 90+1')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

25%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage for Dallas: Strong home attack (average 2.00 goals per game) meets Austin's highly vulnerable away defense (2.46 goals conceded per game)
  • Historical dominance: Dallas won 4 out of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Austin and holds a strong home record
  • Tactical edge: Dallas recently averaged 5.8 shots on target per game in recent matches showing strong offensive threat
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability for Dallas, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per home game
  • Austin's stabilized form with 0 losses in their last 5 matches
  • Restricted data due to missing weather data
Overview

Dallas (3rd place, 43 points) host Austin (13th place, 29 points) at Toyota Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 20, 2026, 2:30 AM

The mathematical model calculates a 57% home win probability for Dallas

Clear home advantage for the in-form Dallas side

Form

Dallas form: LDWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Dallas is on a 3-game winning streak

Austin form: DWDDW

Austin remains unbeaten in their last 5 matches

Statistics

Dallas scores an average of 1.96 goals and concedes 1.68 goals per game

Austin averages 1.28 goals scored and 1.76 goals conceded

Away from home, Austin concedes a high average of 2.46 goals per match

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in history

Dallas dominated with 4 wins, Austin is winless with 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for Dallas

Key Players

Petar Musa (18 goals, 5 assists, 7.40 rating)

JoaquĂ­n Valiente (2 goals, 8 assists, 6.96 rating)

Kaick (3 goals, 1 assist, 6.87 rating)

Facundo Torres (4 goals, 6 assists, 7.20 rating)

Christian Ramirez (7 goals, 2 assists, 6.84 rating)

J. Rosales (1 goal, 4 assists, 6.68 rating)

Goalkeepers

Daniel is in goal for Dallas with 4 clean sheets this season

Brad Stuver protects the goal for Austin with 4 clean sheets registered

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Toyota Stadium

Toyota Stadium history shows an average of 4.2 goals per game

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals occurred in all previous games here

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