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Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire - Charlotte

08/02/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Chicago Fire
2.1
Total xG
3.2
Charlotte
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CFCHA

Chicago Fire

Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.41
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.19
Hugo Cuypers not in squad (13 goals, 0 assists)
Maren Haile-Selassie on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 79% available)
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)

Charlotte

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.47
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Kerwin Vargas not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Wilfried Zaha not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
David Schnegg on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chicago Fire: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 2
    Chicago Fire: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Chicago Fire: 44% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 16)

  • 4
    Chicago Fire with Hugo Cuypers: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Charlotte: 66% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

23%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Clear home advantage against road-struggling visitors: Chicago concede just 1.00 goals at home, while Charlotte allow an average of 2.8 goals away
  • Strong mathematical outlook: The model calculates a 58% home win probability and projects 2.11 goals for Chicago Fire
  • Key absences on both sides: Chicago play without Hugo Cuypers and Maren Haile-Selassie, while Charlotte miss Kerwin Vargas and Wilfried Zaha
Risk Factors
  • Severe defensive vulnerability for Charlotte on the road, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per away match
  • Recent dip in form for Chicago Fire with two consecutive losses leading up to this game
  • Reduced attacking threat due to the absence of key offensive players such as Hugo Cuypers for the home team
Overview

Chicago Fire (4th place, 26 points) host Charlotte (6th place, 25 points) at Soldier Field

Major League Soccer match on August 2, 2026, 12:30 AM

Direct battle for key playoff spots in the Eastern Conference

Form

Chicago Fire enter with WWWLL form, having lost their last two matches

Charlotte travel with LWWDW form, coming off a win against New York RB

FormSummary shows 3 wins and 2 losses for Chicago in their last 5 games

Charlotte recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the same span

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Chicago Fire average 1.88 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per game this season

Charlotte average 1.65 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per match

Severe away struggles for Charlotte, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per game on the road

Soldier Field has averaged 4 goals per game across 5 matches this season

Head-to-Head

Balanced historical record with 2 wins for each team in 4 head-to-head matches

The last meeting on June 29, 2025, ended in a 3-2 home victory for Chicago Fire

A total of 18 goals were scored across 4 encounters with 10 for Chicago and 8 for Charlotte

Key Players

Philip Zinckernagel leads Chicago with 5 goals, 7 assists, and a 7.41 season rating

Robin Lod contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in 15 season appearances

Robert Lewandowski has rising form with 1 goal in his last 4 games

Pep Biel is Charlotte's top threat with 8 goals, 5 assists, and a 7.27 rating

Idan Toklomati has recorded 5 goals and 1 assist in 17 matches

Liel Abada shows rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 2 appearances

Goalkeepers

Chris Brady starts for Chicago Fire, keeping 6 clean sheets this season

Kristijan Kahlina starts for Charlotte, keeping 3 clean sheets so far

Kahlina holds a 7.12 season rating compared to Brady at 6.93

Influences

Home advantage for Chicago Fire with only 9 goals conceded in 9 home games

Soldier Field has been highly entertaining with an average of 4 goals per match

The game will be played on natural grass at Soldier Field

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