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Chicago Fire – Charlotte2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Chicago Fire
2.11
Total xG
3.24
Charlotte
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chicago Fire | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.47 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.41 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Hugo Cuypers not in squad (13 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Maren Haile-Selassie on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Kerwin Vargas not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Wilfried Zaha not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| David Schnegg on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Clear home advantage against road-struggling visitors: Chicago concede just 1.00 goals at home, while Charlotte allow an average of 2.8 goals away
- Strong mathematical outlook: The model calculates a 58% home win probability and projects 2.11 goals for Chicago Fire
- Key absences on both sides: Chicago play without Hugo Cuypers and Maren Haile-Selassie, while Charlotte miss Kerwin Vargas and Wilfried Zaha
Risks
- Severe defensive vulnerability for Charlotte on the road, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per away match
- Recent dip in form for Chicago Fire with two consecutive losses leading up to this game
- Reduced attacking threat due to the absence of key offensive players such as Hugo Cuypers for the home team
All probabilities
Result
Chicago Fire58%
Draw23%
Charlotte19%
Double chance
Chicago Fire or draw81%
Charlotte or draw42%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chicago Fire: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Chicago Fire: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Chicago Fire: 44% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 16)
- Chicago Fire with Hugo Cuypers: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Charlotte: 66% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Chicago Fire 4-4-2 · Charlotte 4-3-3
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 16 J. Waterman
- 3 J. Elliott
- 15 A. Gutman
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 6 A. Salétros
- 19 J. Bamba
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 17 R. Lod
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 14 N. Byrne
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 22 F. Kessler
- 15 H. Toffolo
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 8 A. Westwood
- 28 D. Diani
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 9 Idan Toklomati
- 11 L. Abada
Substitutes
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 14 V. Radojević
- 20 J. Shokalook
- 22 M. Pineda
- 24 R. Dean
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 5 S. Rogers
- 21 T. Miller
- 4 A. Privett
- 7 A. Goodwin
- 13 B. Bronico
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 25 T. Smalls
- 37 R. Aloko
- 20 B. Coulibaly
- 35 W. Cleary
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