Match report →
Vancouver Whitecaps – Los Angeles FC1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.96
Total xG
3.07
Los Angeles FC
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vancouver Whitecaps | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.82 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Attack strength (1.44x league average) | +0.05 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Sebastian Berhalter not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| David Martínez on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Mark Delgado on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Extreme turf advantage: Vancouver won 8 out of 9 home games on artificial turf (8W-0D-1L)
- BC Place fortress: The Whitecaps' defense concedes an average of just 0.44 goals per home game
- Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 56% probability for a home win
Risks
- Missing Sebastian Berhalter weakens the hosts, with only 86% of the usual lineup strength available
- Visitors in red-hot form: Los Angeles FC arrives with a 4-game winning streak
- Absences for LAFC: David Martínez and Mark Delgado are missing from the squad
All probabilities
Result
Vancouver Whitecaps56%
Draw24%
Los Angeles FC20%
Double chance
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw80%
Los Angeles FC or draw44%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vancouver Whitecaps with Bruno Caicedo: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Los Angeles FC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Los Angeles FC with Nkosi Tafari: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Los Angeles FC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1 · Los Angeles FC 4-3-3
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 28 T. Johnson
- 8 O. Larraz
- 20 A. Cubas
- 59 J. Badwal
- 13 T. Müller
- 25 R. Gauld
- 24 B. White
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 5 R. Porteous
- 33 A. Long
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 11 T. Tillman
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 7 H. Son
- 99 D. Bouanga
Substitutes
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 6 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 11 E. Sabbi
- 26 J. Ngando Mbende
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 41 N. Djordjevic
- 3 S. Adekugbe
- 43 T. Wright
- 8 M. Delgado
- 12 T. Hasal
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 30 D. Martínez Morales
- 45 K. Nielsen
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 22 J. Terry
- 17 J. Ebobisse
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