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Major League Soccer

Vancouver Whitecaps - Los Angeles FC

08/01/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Vancouver Whitecaps
2.0
Total xG
3.1
Los Angeles FC
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
VWLAF

Vancouver Whitecaps

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.82
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.14
Attack strength (1.44x league average)
+0.05
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.01
Sebastian Berhalter not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists)

Los Angeles FC

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.26
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.22
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.14
David Martínez on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
Mark Delgado on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
22% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vancouver Whitecaps with Bruno Caicedo: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Los Angeles FC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Los Angeles FC with Nkosi Tafari: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Los Angeles FC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

24%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Extreme turf advantage: Vancouver won 8 out of 9 home games on artificial turf (8W-0D-1L)
  • BC Place fortress: The Whitecaps' defense concedes an average of just 0.44 goals per home game
  • Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 56% probability for a home win
Risk Factors
  • Missing Sebastian Berhalter weakens the hosts, with only 86% of the usual lineup strength available
  • Visitors in red-hot form: Los Angeles FC arrives with a 4-game winning streak
  • Absences for LAFC: David Martínez and Mark Delgado are missing from the squad
Overview

Vancouver Whitecaps (1st place, 33 points) vs Los Angeles FC (2nd place, 33 points)

Top-tier MLS clash on August 1, 2026, 11:30 PM at BC Place Stadium

Both teams are tied on points at the top of the table

Form

Vancouver shows mixed form with WLWLD in recent matches

Last result was a 0-0 draw against Minnesota United

Los Angeles FC enters in stellar shape with LWWWW

The visitors won their last four consecutive matches, including 4-0 against Sporting KC

Statistics

Vancouver Whitecaps average 2.31 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match

At home, their defense is extremely tight, conceding just 0.44 goals per game

Los Angeles FC score an average of 1.89 goals per game

On the road, the visitors concede an average of 1.50 goals per match

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these teams

Vancouver leads the recent record with 2 wins compared to 1 for LAFC

Two games ended in a draw

The last match on November 23, 2025 finished in a 2-2 draw

Key Players

Brian White is the top scorer for the home side with 10 goals this season

Thomas Müller contributed 4 goals and 2 assists in his 13 appearances

Denis Bouanga is LAFC's main threat with 10 goals and 3 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Yohei Takaoka played 15 matches for Vancouver, securing 6 clean sheets

Hugo Lloris guarded the goal 15 times for LAFC, achieving 11 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at BC Place Stadium

Vancouver is highly dominant on turf with 8 wins and 1 loss at home

LAFC lost their only game on artificial turf this season

The mathematical model projects a 56% probability for a home win

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