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Major League Soccer

Minnesota United - Vancouver Whitecaps

07/26/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Minnesota United
1.3
Total xG
2.8
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MUVW

Minnesota United

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.42
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.31
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap)
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Nectarios Triantis not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)

Vancouver Whitecaps

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.32
Attack strength (1.28x league average)
-0.29
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Sebastian Berhalter not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 79% available)
Weak away record (1.9 vs 2.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.80
+0.80
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 2
    Minnesota United with Michael Boxall : 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Vancouver Whitecaps with Rayan Elloumi: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 39% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 18)

  • 5
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

28%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Vancouver averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Minnesota United's goal production is currently stalling, with only 1.0 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.3
  • Historical dominance for the visitors: Vancouver won the last head-to-head encounter clearly with 6-0
Risk Factors
  • Minnesota United enters this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Vancouver's defense is vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per away match
Overview

Minnesota United hosts Vancouver Whitecaps at Allianz Field

Major League Soccer match on July 26, 2026, 2:30 AM

The Whitecaps visit as second in the table, while Minnesota sits in 9th place

An important clash in the race for the playoff positions

Form

Minnesota United's form trend points downwards with the form string DLLDL

The home side recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses recently

Vancouver Whitecaps arrive with the form string DWLWL

The visitors registered 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last matches

Statistics

Minnesota United scores an average of 1.19 goals and concedes 1.50 goals per game this season

At home, Minnesota is defensively more stable, conceding just 1.00 goal per home game

Vancouver Whitecaps boast a strong attack, averaging 2.47 goals per game

On the road, however, the Whitecaps concede an average of 2.00 goals per match

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vancouver recorded 3 wins, while Minnesota won once

The last direct meeting on March 15, 2026, ended in a clear 6-0 victory for Vancouver

In total, Vancouver scored 12 goals in these matches compared to Minnesota's 3

Key Players

Kelvin Yeboah is Minnesota's top attacker with 8 goals this season

Joaquín Pereyra contributes 1 goal and 6 assists in midfield with a rating of 7.34

Anthony Markanich Jr. strengthens the defense and has already scored 4 goals

For Vancouver, Brian White shines with 10 goals and 2 assists this campaign

Mathías Laborda impresses in defense with 3 goals and 3 assists

Ryan Gauld brings massive efficiency to the midfield with 2 goals from just one appearance

Not nominated: Nectarios Triantis (1G/1A)

Not nominated: Sebastian Berhalter (6G/5A)

Goalkeepers

Drake Callender guards the goal for Minnesota United with a season average rating of 6.82 and 4 clean sheets

On the other side, Yohei Takaoka starts for Vancouver, boasting 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Minnesota United plays on the natural grass of Allianz Field

In the past 5 home matches at Allianz Field, an average of 2.0 goals per game was scored

The historical BTTS rate at this venue is 40%

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