Match report →
Minnesota United – Vancouver Whitecaps0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Minnesota United
1.34
Total xG
2.78
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Minnesota United | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.80 | +0.80 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | −0.29 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Nectarios Triantis not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Sebastian Berhalter not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.9 vs 2.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Vancouver averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Minnesota United's goal production is currently stalling, with only 1.0 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.3
- Historical dominance for the visitors: Vancouver won the last head-to-head encounter clearly with 6-0
Risks
- Minnesota United enters this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Vancouver's defense is vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Minnesota United34%
Draw28%
Vancouver Whitecaps38%
Double chance
Minnesota United or draw62%
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw66%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Minnesota United with Michael Boxall : 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Vancouver Whitecaps with Rayan Elloumi: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 39% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 18)
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Minnesota United 5-3-2 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 3 K. Duncan
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 15 M. Boxall
- 23 M. Duggan
- 13 A. Markanich
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 30 O. Géne
- 20 W. Trapp
- 9 K. Yeboah
- 29 M. Dieng
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 4 R. Veselinović
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 28 T. Johnson
- 8 O. Larraz
- 20 A. Cubas
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 13 T. Müller
- 59 J. Badwal
- 24 B. White
Substitutes
- 1 A. Smir
- 2 D. Padelford
- 6 P. Stroud
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 24 J. Gressel
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 26 J. Ngando Mbende
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 41 N. Djordjevic
- 30 A. Zendejas Rodríguez
- 3 S. Adekugbe
- 25 R. Gauld
- 63 J. Selemani
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →