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Major League Soccer

New England - New York City

08/23/2026, 08:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
New England
1.2
Total xG
2.5
New York City
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
NENYC

New England

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.96
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.10

New York City

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.03
M. Moralez not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New York City: 83% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    New York City with Seymour Reid: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    New York City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    New England with Cody Baker: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.8 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

30%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Home vs Away disparity: New England's strong home defense (avg 0.77 goals conceded) meets New York City's fragile away defense (avg 2.20 goals conceded)
  • Tactical edge: New England recently averaged 56% possession and recorded 5.6 shots on target per match
  • Attacking trend: New England currently scores more frequently with 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.7
Risk Factors
  • Midfield absence: New York City is missing M. Moralez, a key playmaker with 6 assists this season
  • Short recovery time: Both teams face a tight schedule with only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Extremely tight model prediction: The mathematical model suggests an incredibly close match with a 34% home win and 36% away win probability
Overview

New England host New York City at Gillette Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 23, 2026, 10:30 PM

New England is in 4th place with 33 points, while the visitors are in 7th with 26 points

Crucial points are at stake in the upper part of the table

Form

New England's form: WDLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home side recently secured a 3-0 victory against DC United

New York City's form: WWDLL

The visitors travel following two consecutive defeats

Statistics

New England scores avg 1.60 goals and concedes avg 1.25 goals per match

Strong home defense: New England concedes only avg 0.77 goals at home

New York City scores avg 1.70 goals but concedes avg 2.20 goals away from home

Both teams scored in 11 of New England's 20 matches

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches recorded

New York City leads with 3 wins compared to 1 win for New England

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 win for New England

Key Players

Carles Gil shines with 7 goals and 3 assists this season

Alhassan Yusuf shows rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 matches

NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau leads the visitors with an impressive 13 goals this season

AgustĆ­n Ojeda has contributed 5 goals and 5 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Matt Turner guards the goal for New England, recording 5 clean sheets

Matt Freese starts in goal for New York City with 3 clean sheets to his name

Influences

The match will be played at Gillette Stadium on artificial turf

New England has recorded 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 defeats on this surface so far

The venue historically averages 2.2 goals per game

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