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Major League Soccer

Toronto - New York City

08/29/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Toronto
1.3
Total xG
2.6
New York City
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
TORNYC

Toronto

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-0.84
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.05
DĆ”niel SallĆ³i on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Niklas Dorsch not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

New York City

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.02
Talles Magno not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Tayvon Gray on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New York City: 81% of all goals in the first half (13 of 16, last 12 games)

  • 2
    Toronto: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    Emilio AristizƔbal: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    New York City: 31% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 16)

  • 5
    New York City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

30%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Historical dominance: New York City secured 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-head matches
  • Attacking threat: New York City recently averaged 5.0 shots on target per match
  • Vulnerable defense: Toronto conceded an average of 1.76 goals per game this season
Risk Factors
  • Away defense issues: New York City conceded an average of 2.0 goals per away match
  • Significant absence: Playmaker M. Moralez is out injured, missing his 6 assists this season
Overview

Toronto (9th place, 24 points) host New York City (7th place, 27 points) at BMO Field

Major League Soccer match on August 30, 2026, 1:30 AM

A tight mid-table clash is expected

Form

Toronto enters the match with form LDWDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home team recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss recently

New York City travels with form WDLLD

The visitors registered 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats recently

Statistics

Toronto scored 31 goals and conceded 37 so far this season

At home, Toronto averages 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded

New York City has scored 35 goals while conceding 30

The visitors concede an average of 2 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

New York City has been highly dominant in the last 5 head-to-head encounters

The visitors secured 4 wins, alongside 1 draw and 0 defeats

Their last meeting on July 31, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Alonso Coello impresses with an average rating of 7.25 and 3 assists

Djordje Mihailovic contributed 2 goals and 3 assists so far

Josh Sargent has registered 4 goals this season

NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau is the standout player for the visitors with 13 goals and a 7.79 rating

AgustĆ­n Ojeda recorded 5 goals and 5 assists this season

Luighi has already scored 2 goals in just 3 appearances

Goalkeepers

Luka Gavran started 21 times in goal and secured 3 clean sheets

He has yet to record a clean sheet at home this season

Matt Freese also guarded the goal 21 times, keeping 3 clean sheets

He kept 1 clean sheet in away matches this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at BMO Field

Stadium statistics show an average of 3.6 goals per game at this venue

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 home games for Toronto

Toronto has struggled to maintain defensive stability on home soil

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