Match report ā
Toronto ā New York City1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Toronto
1.27
Total xG
2.62
New York City
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toronto | New York City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | ā0.84 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | ā0.02 | |
| DĆ”niel SallĆ³i on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Niklas Dorsch not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Talles Magno not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tayvon Gray on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: New York City secured 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-head matches
- Attacking threat: New York City recently averaged 5.0 shots on target per match
- Vulnerable defense: Toronto conceded an average of 1.76 goals per game this season
Risks
- Away defense issues: New York City conceded an average of 2.0 goals per away match
- Significant absence: Playmaker M. Moralez is out injured, missing his 6 assists this season
All probabilities
Result
Toronto33%
Draw30%
New York City37%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Toronto or draw63%
New York City or draw67%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York City: 81% of all goals in the first half (13 of 16, last 12 games)
- Toronto: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Emilio AristizƔbal: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- New York City: 31% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 16)
- New York City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Toronto 4-2-3-1 Ā· New York City 4-3-3
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 19 K. Franklin
- 25 W. Zimmerman
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 22 R. Laryea
- 71 M. Cimermancic
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 9 J. Sargent
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 35 M. IlenÄiÄ
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 7 N. FernƔndez Mercau
- 55 K. Alexander Parks
- 8 A. Perea CastaƱeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
- 9 B. Traore
Substitutes
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 17 E. AristizƔbal Chavarriaga
- 20 D. Salloi
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 44 R. Edwards
- 99 J. Vilsaint
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 15 N. Gomis
- 38 J. Gilman
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 24 T. Gray
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 27 C. Flax
- 18 G. Ranjitsingh
- 23 M. Murray
- 88 M. Jones
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