Match report â
Atlanta United â Cincinnati1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Atlanta United
1.65
Total xG
3.39
Cincinnati
1.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlanta United | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +1.07 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.49 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | â0.28 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average) | â0.28 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | â0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Aleksey Miranchuk not in squad (6 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Miguel AlmirĂłn not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 52% available) | ||
| KĂ©vin Denkey not in squad (14 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Pavel Bucha not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Ender Echenique not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Atlanta United play without Aleksey Miranchuk and Miguel AlmirĂłn, leaving only 53% of regular goal danger available
- Tactical metrics: Cincinnati averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches, compared to 3.6 for Atlanta United
- Goal tendency: Both teams show strong over tendencies, with model predicting 68% probability for both teams to score
Risks
- Away defensive struggles: Cincinnati concede an average of 4.0 goals per away match
- Form slump: Cincinnati are winless in their last 5 matches, losing 3 of them
All probabilities
Result
Atlanta United36%
Draw25%
Cincinnati39%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Double chance
Atlanta United or draw61%
Cincinnati or draw64%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cincinnati: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Atlanta United: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Tom Barlow: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Tristan Muyumba: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: 3 comebacks in 7 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
Lineups
Atlanta United 4-3-3 · Cincinnati 3-5-2
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 3 E. BĂĄez Sotelo
- 11 G. Galoppo
- 14 M. Amaro Viega
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 10 M. AlmirĂłn Rejala
- 36 B. Embolo
- 35 A. Fortune
Cincinnati
- 13 E. Louro
- 24 K. Smith
- 12 M. Robinson
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 23 D. DoudÄra
- 11 S. Gidi
- 20 P. Bucha
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 3 T. Malacia
- 16 T. Barlow
- 9 A. Denkey
Substitutes
- 7 S. Alzate
- 20 L. Brennan
- 19 S. Santos Gomes
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 47 M. Edwards
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 30 C. Togashi
- 22 F. Picault
- 27 P. DĂaz Huincales
- 28 W. Reilly
- 70 C. Dunbar
- 44 D. Chica
- 6 J. Malatini
- 2 A. Powell
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 18 R. Celentano
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 27 B. Anunga
- 29 B. RamĂrez LeĂłn
- 66 E. Echenique Peña
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 14 K. Fletcher
- 19 S. Chirila
- 50 F. Samson
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