Match report →
DC United – Columbus Crew2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
DC United
1.40
Total xG
3.01
Columbus Crew
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | DC United | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.40 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Brais Méndez on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 98% available) |
Key factors
- Visitor advantage: The prediction model favors Columbus Crew with a calculated 41% win probability
- Tactical control: Columbus Crew averaged 57% possession in recent matches
- Vulnerable defenses: DC United concedes an average of 1.83 goals at home, while the visitors concede 2.27 away
Risks
- High fatigue: DC United enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Vulnerable away defense: Columbus Crew concedes a high average of 2.27 goals per away match
- Struggling attack: DC United's goal production has stalled at 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.5
All probabilities
Result
DC United32%
Draw27%
Columbus Crew41%
Double chance
DC United or draw59%
Columbus Crew or draw68%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Columbus Crew: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- DC United: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
- Tai Baribo: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- DC United: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- DC United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
DC United 4-3-3 · Columbus Crew 3-4-2-1
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 5 S. Hefti
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 2 K. Nono
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 9 T. Baribo
- 11 L. Munteanu
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 23 M. Farsi
- 7 D. Chambost
- 50 T. Karumanchi
- 11 B. Lennon
- 16 T. Habroune
- 8 S. Rodríguez Molina
- 77 J. Martínez
Substitutes
- 4 M. Peltola
- 8 J. Stroud
- 13 S. Nealis
- 23 B. Servania
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 77 H. Kijima
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 32 O. Avilez
- 3 E. Bailly
- 10 B. Méndez Portela
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 19 J. Thiaré
- 31 S. Moreira
- 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 54 L. Pruter
- 26 L. Giaccone
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