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Major League Soccer

DC United - Columbus Crew

09/09/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
DC United
1.4
Total xG
3.0
Columbus Crew
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DUCC

DC United

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.05

Columbus Crew

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Brais MĂ©ndez on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 98% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Columbus Crew: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    DC United: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)

  • 3
    Tai Baribo: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    DC United: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 5
    Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 6
    DC United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

27%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Visitor advantage: The prediction model favors Columbus Crew with a calculated 41% win probability
  • Tactical control: Columbus Crew averaged 57% possession in recent matches
  • Vulnerable defenses: DC United concedes an average of 1.83 goals at home, while the visitors concede 2.27 away
Risk Factors
  • High fatigue: DC United enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Vulnerable away defense: Columbus Crew concedes a high average of 2.27 goals per away match
  • Struggling attack: DC United's goal production has stalled at 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.5
Overview

DC United (12th place, 25 points) host Columbus Crew (13th place, 23 points) at Audi Field

MLS match on September 9, 2026, 11:30 PM

A direct clash in the lower half of the standings

Form

DC United shows a mixed trend with form string DLLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

No wins recently but 3 draws and 2 losses

Columbus Crew enters with form string LLLLW

The visitors ended their losing streak last match with 1 win alongside 4 losses

Statistics

DC United averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded per season

At home they concede an average of 1.83 goals per game

Columbus Crew scores an average of 1.55 goals away but concedes 2.27 goals

Audi Field saw an average of 3.6 goals per match with an Over 2.5 rate of 80%

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

DC United failed to win any while Columbus Crew secured 2 wins

The teams drew 2 times

The last encounter ended in a 1-2 away victory for Columbus Crew

Key Players

Tai Baribo leads the hosts with 12 season goals

Louis Munteanu contributed 6 goals so far

Peglow stands out with 1 goal and 4 assists

Santiago RodrĂ­guez scored 3 goals in his last 5 games for the visitors

Taha Habroune has registered 2 goals and 2 assists

Not in squad: Brais MĂ©ndez (2 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Sean Johnson guards DC United's goal with 22 appearances and a rating of 6.8

Patrick Schulte has 23 matches for Columbus Crew with a rating of 6.68

Both keepers have recorded clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Audi Field

DC United has a negative home goal difference of 15 to 22 goals

Columbus Crew has already conceded 25 goals in 11 away games

The surface offers classic conditions for both teams

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