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LA Galaxy – St. Louis City1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
LA Galaxy
1.48
Total xG
2.92
St. Louis City
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LA Galaxy | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.81 | +0.81 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Gabriel Pec not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Sang-bin Jeong on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Form contrast: St. Louis City enters unbeaten in 5 matches (WWDWW) while LA Galaxy is coming off a 0-3 loss
- Tactical Trend: St. Louis City is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) compared to their season average of 1.27
- Missing goal threat: LA Galaxy is missing J. De Mello who has scored 5 goals this season
Risks
- Away defense: St. Louis City concedes an average of 3.25 goals per away game this season
- Squad impact: Gabriel Pec is missing for LA Galaxy, reducing starting XI strength to 85%
- Attacking drop: LA Galaxy's recent goal output has slowed down to 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.38
All probabilities
Result
LA Galaxy37%
Draw28%
St. Louis City35%
Double chance
LA Galaxy or draw65%
St. Louis City or draw63%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LA Galaxy: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- St. Louis City with Rafael Santos: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- LA Galaxy with Mauricio Cuevas: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Gabriel Pec: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)
- St. Louis City: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
LA Galaxy 4-1-4-1 · St. Louis City 3-4-1-2
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 2 M. Yamane
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 14 J. Nelson
- 15 J. Haak
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 22 E. Wynder
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 26 H. Miller
- 18 M. Reus
St. Louis City
- 1 R. Bürki
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 21 D. Polvara
- 59 M. Joyner
- 24 D. Edelman
- 8 C. Durkin
- 14 T. Totland
- 17 M. Hartel
- 10 E. Löwen
- 11 S. Becher
Substitutes
- 1 N. Mićović
- 3 J. Aude
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 21 R. Taylor
- 16 I. Parente
- 20 C. Rindov
- 76 T.Elgersma
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 22 K. Hiebert
- 28 M. Perez
- 39 B. Lundt
- 77 S. Jeong
- 99 J. Orozco
- 27 F. Fol
- 7 T. Ostrák
- 29 P. Ault
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