đŸ‡ș🇾

Major League Soccer

LA Galaxy - St. Louis City

07/23/2026, 02:30 AM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
LA Galaxy
1.5
Total xG
2.9
St. Louis City
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
LGSLC

LA Galaxy

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Gabriel Pec not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

St. Louis City

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.22
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.22
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.08
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Sang-bin Jeong on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.81
+0.81
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    LA Galaxy: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    St. Louis City with Rafael Santos: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    LA Galaxy with Mauricio Cuevas: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Gabriel Pec: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

  • 5
    St. Louis City: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

28%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Form contrast: St. Louis City enters unbeaten in 5 matches (WWDWW) while LA Galaxy is coming off a 0-3 loss
  • Tactical Trend: St. Louis City is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) compared to their season average of 1.27
  • Missing goal threat: LA Galaxy is missing J. De Mello who has scored 5 goals this season
Risk Factors
  • Away defense: St. Louis City concedes an average of 3.25 goals per away game this season
  • Squad impact: Gabriel Pec is missing for LA Galaxy, reducing starting XI strength to 85%
  • Attacking drop: LA Galaxy's recent goal output has slowed down to 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.38
Overview

LA Galaxy hosts St. Louis City at the Dignity Health Sports Park

Major League Soccer match on July 23, 2026, 4:30 AM

LA Galaxy is currently in 9th place with 20 points

St. Louis City sits in 10th place with 19 points

A tight mid-table clash is expected

Form

LA Galaxy shows a form curve of WLWDL with 2 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games

They suffered a 0-3 defeat against Los Angeles FC in their last match

St. Louis City is in strong form with WWDWW and remains unbeaten in 5 matches

Their last game resulted in a 3-2 victory against Sporting KC

Statistics

LA Galaxy averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded per game

At home, the host team averages 1.43 goals scored

St. Louis City averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded

Away from home, St. Louis City concedes a high average of 3.25 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in total

St. Louis City has won 2 matches with 2 draws, remaining undefeated against LA Galaxy

The overall goal ratio is 7:11 in favor of St. Louis City

The last direct duel ended in a 3-3 draw

Key Players

Marco Reus scored 4 goals and provided 5 assists in 16 appearances with a 7.29 rating

Joseph Paintsil has 3 goals and 2 assists from 12 games played

Lucas Sanabria contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 16 matches

Marcel Hartel scored 4 goals and 1 assist in 13 games for the visitors

Eduard Löwen has 2 goals and 1 assist in 8 appearances

Simon Becher registered 1 goal and 4 assists in 15 matches

Goalkeepers

J. Marcinkowski holds an average rating of 6.98 with 2 clean sheets this season

Roman BĂŒrki has a rating of 6.84 and also recorded 2 clean sheets

Influences

LA Galaxy plays on grass at the Dignity Health Sports Park

The venue averages 2.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches played at this stadium

St. Louis City has a severe defensive drop away from home, conceding 3.25 goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.